--- title: Four years into the bull market description: Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Four years into the bull market Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 10/12/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_261012.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## **This bull market is nearly four years old** Over the past 50 years, five other bull markets have reached this age, and each of them went on to last at least one more year. In fact, a bull market lasting several more years is entirely plausible. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-48-23-5579-AM.png?width=893&height=663&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-48-23-5579-AM.png) Source:  Ryan Detrick --- #### Chart #2 — ## **Profits are powering the S&P 500 bull market** The S&P 500 has gained 168% since 2019. Earnings growth accounts for 137% of that return and dividends for 26%. Multiple expansion has contributed almost nothing (just 5%). The market is often described as overvalued, yet this breakdown suggests otherwise. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-49-53-9559-AM.png?width=652&height=711&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-49-53-9559-AM.png) Source:  Ryan Detrick    --- #### Chart #3 — ## **More than 50% of Harvard’s stock portfolio is invested into SpaceX** Here is the composition of Harvard’s endowment equity portfolio at the end of the second quarter of 2026. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-50-58-9831-AM.png?width=773&height=773&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-50-58-9831-AM.png) Source: Rand Group --- #### Chart #4 — ## **French companies now borrow cheaper than the French state** €215bn of French corporate bonds now trade at tighter spreads than government bonds, 18 times the amount in January. This means 38% of the investment-grade market now treats the government, rather than companies, as the greater credit risk. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-52-12-0412-AM.png?width=698&height=550&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-52-12-0412-AM.png) Source:  Bloomberg     --- #### Chart #5 — ## **Europe’s LNG supply is becoming overwhelmingly American** The United States’ share of EU LNG imports has risen from 28% in early 2021 to 63.2% today, and IEEFA expects it could reach 80% by 2028. Two shocks sped up this shift: Europe’s exit from Russian LNG and disruptions to supply from Qatar. US cargoes provide flexibility, but they go to the highest bidder. When Asian buyers offer more, Europe must compete or pay a higher price. Europe has broken free of one energy dependence. Is it now creating another? With US LNG covering almost two-thirds of imports, does it strengthen Europe’s energy security or become its next point of vulnerability? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-53-24-0008-AM.png?width=828&height=578&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-53-24-0008-AM.png) Source:  Jack Prandelli on X --- #### Chart #6 — ## **Europe has world-class talent. Can it build more world-class companies?** The size of America’s technology leaders raises a wider question: why does Europe find it so hard to turn scientific excellence into companies of similar scale? Europe has no shortage of exceptional engineers, researchers and entrepreneurs. However, fragmented markets, complex regulation, slow permitting and limited access to growth capital can make it harder for companies to scale. Robust consumer protection and fair taxation pursue legitimate aims. The task is to balance them with incentives to invest, innovate and take risks. Artificial intelligence makes this task more pressing. Europe has the talent to play a part in shaping this revolution. Converting that potential into economic leadership will require a business environment in which ambitious companies can expand across borders. The opportunity is clear, make it easier for European innovations to become global successes. What should Europe reform first?  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-54-37-0926-AM.png?width=1004&height=578&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-54-37-0926-AM.png) Source:  Michel A. Arouet --- #### Chart #7 — ## **South America’s political shift now puts Brazil in the spotlight** The political realignment across South America is now turning attention to Brazil. At the end of 2023, seven of the region’s 12 governments leaned to the left. Seven are now led by right-wing or centre-right leaders. Brazil’s runoff on 25 October could take this shift further. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round, with 47% against 44.9%. For investors, the implications extend well beyond politics. Brazil is South America’s largest oil producer, and its output hit a record 4.62 million barrels per day in August. Petrobras is central to this energy story. Its ADRs rose by around 10% on the morning after the first round. The next president could influence the company’s fuel pricing, dividend policy and investment priorities. In effect, Brazil’s election is also a vote on the future of its energy champion.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-55-53-0614-AM.png?width=713&height=873&name=image-png-Oct-12-2026-07-55-53-0614-AM.png) Source:  The World in Maps --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Four years into the bull market](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/four-years-into-the-bull-market) Meanwhile, earnings growth, not valuation expansion, is doing the heavy lifting behind the S&P 500’s rally. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 12/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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