--- title: Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory? description: Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory? Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 10/05/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_261005.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 — ## Will France’s sovereign debt rating drop into “junk” territory? Based on the relationship between sovereign ratings and spreads over Germany, France’s current spread of 135 basis points is consistent with a BBB- rating, the lowest investment-grade notch on the S&P scale. In other words, France now stands just one notch above “junk” territory. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-38-39-3716-AM.png?width=964&height=482&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-38-39-3716-AM.png)Source: Bloomberg, Eleva Capital --- #### Chart #2 — ## Anthropic at $2tn: outrageous or a bet on extraordinary growth? The reportedly leaked IPO prospectus paints two contrasting pictures. The first concerns spending: an operating loss of $8bn in 2025 and over $500bn of future commitments, around 80% of which are reportedly non-cancellable. The second concerns growth: - Revenue in 2025: $4.6bn - Annualised run rate in July 2026: $65bn - Revenue forecast for 2028: $200bn A $2tn valuation therefore implies: - 435x 2025 revenue - 31x the July annualised run rate - 10x forecast 2028 revenue However, a run rate is not the same as annual revenue, and a forecast is not a result. Can July’s performance be repeated, or was it inflated by exceptionally large contracts? Two customers reportedly accounted for a quarter of 2025 revenue, with no long-term commitment in place. Each new projection makes the valuation easier to justify. The real test lies in converting those projections into actual revenue. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-40-27-9213-AM.png?width=761&height=507&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-40-27-9213-AM.png)Source: Dan Runkevicius   --- #### Chart #3 — ## A new valuation metric for US stocks? The White House has just released the seating chart for its Super Intelligence Luncheon. Does proximity to President Trump signal greater perceived upside? Wall Street studies earnings report closely. It may want to study the seating plan as well. - Jensen Huang (Nvidia) and Elon Musk (Tesla/X): seated directly next to Trump. - Mark Zuckerberg (Meta) and Sundar Pichai (Google): separated from him by a single seat. - Satya Nadella (Microsoft): still close at hand. - Jeff Bezos (Amazon): a little further along the table. - Hock Tan (Broadcom) and Sanjay Mehrotra (Micron): further removed. - Dario Amodei (Anthropic): toward the far end. - Greg Brockman (OpenAI): on the opposite side, several seats away. Could distance from the president become a new valuation metric? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-42-29-7525-AM.png?width=648&height=803&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-42-29-7525-AM.png) Source: Manish Singh --- #### Chart #4 — ## The longest duration Treasury bond ETF is now down 67% from its peak in March 2020 How did this happen? The 30-year Treasury yield has risen from a record low of 0.8% in March 2020 to 5.6% today. With rates climbing from record lows, the long duration of these bonds amplified the losses. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-43-17-3993-AM.png?width=760&height=533&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-43-17-3993-AM.png) Source: Charlie Bilello     --- #### Chart #5 — ## Democrats might be able to win both houses at US mid-term elections Polymarket now shows the Democrats (in blue) as favourites to regain both the Senate (63% probability) and the House (93% probability) in the midterm elections, their highest odds so far.   ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-43-49-8058-AM.png?width=699&height=562&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-43-49-8058-AM.png)Source: Polymarkets --- #### Chart #6 — ## President Trump’s current approval rating is the lowest in recent history At 37%, President Trump’s job approval rating is the lowest recorded for any president ahead of a midterm election (polling data available since 1990). ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-45-18-3435-AM.png?width=916&height=613&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-45-18-3435-AM.png)Source: Charlie Bilello --- #### Chart #7 — ## Four watches, $49.4mn, all for charity Rolex’s “Four Seasons” auction was held in London, with an exceptional outcome. Sold individually by Phillips, the four one-of-a-kind Cosmograph Daytona watches fetched a combined $49,467,260, a new record for a charity watch sale. The individual results: 1. ☀️ Summer: $13.6mn 2. 🍂 Autumn: $13.5mn 3. ❄️ Winter: $13.2mn 4. 🌸 Spring: $9mn Each piece represents one season, combining precious metals, natural-stone dials and striking gemstones. The full proceeds will go to the Federer Foundation and Re, supporting children’s access to education and the protection of ecosystems around the world. It was the combination of rarity, craftsmanship and the Rolex name that drew collectors in. Yet the true value of these bids will be measured by the lives and landscapes they help to transform. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-46-18-2328-AM.png?width=608&height=804&name=image-png-Oct-05-2026-07-46-18-2328-AM.png)Source: Watch Analytics --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Is France’s sovereign debt heading towards “junk” territory?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/is-frances-sovereign-debt-heading-towards-junk-territory) Meanwhile, what does Anthropic’s $2tn valuation assume about future growth? Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 05/10/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [The 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/the-10-year-treasury-yield-hits-a-19-year-high?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, US earnings growth leaves the rest of the world behind. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 28/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [How does the S&P 500 perform when the Fed starts hiking?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/how-does-the-sp-500-perform-when-the-fed-starts-hiking?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, bond yields are rising across major markets. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 21/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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