--- title: "Measuring political risk: a new indicator for market turning points" description: Meanwhile, hedging allows oil producers to lock in profits. 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Measuring political risk: a new indicator for market turning points Meanwhile, hedging allows oil producers to lock in profits. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 03/30/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_260330_A.pdf) - - - - #### Chart #1 —  ## A new indicator to track political market shifts Wall Street is increasingly focused on identifying the next major politically driven market move. In this context, Deutsche Bank strategist Maximilian Uleer has introduced a “pressure index” to anticipate potential changes in US policy or communication. This indicator combines several factors, such as short-term changes in Trump’s approval ratings, inflation expectations over the next year, stock market performance (S&P 500), and movements in US Treasury yields. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-23-2026-08-59-26-2266-AM.png?width=503&height=684&name=image-png-Mar-23-2026-08-59-26-2266-AM.png)Source: FT --- #### Chart #2 —  ## Suspicious timing in oil futures trading Last Monday, almost USD $580M in oil futures were traded just 15 minutes before President Trump announced “productive talks” with Iran, causing oil prices to drop and stocks to surge. The timing raises questions about who had prior information, as similar well-timed trades have occurred before major events. Hedge funds note the abnormality, though the White House denies any insider wrongdoing. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-45-52-2469-AM.png?width=938&height=644&name=image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-45-52-2469-AM.png) Source: FT --- #### Chart #3 —  ## Oil producers secure profits through hedging Oil producers and industry players have built USD $193B in short positions on Brent crude, doubling since early 2026 and surpassing the 2022 peak. Rather than speculation, this reflects hedging: firms lock in ~$100+ oil prices via futures to secure revenues and margins regardless of future price moves. This coordinated strategy signals peak profitability management, not fear, as industry leaders prioritise stability amid volatile markets. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-47-26-6449-AM.png?width=938&height=545&name=image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-47-26-6449-AM.png) Source: Zerohedge  --- #### Chart #4 —  ## Big tech losing its market leadership The “Magnificent 7” are decoupling from the broader market, with correlation to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index dropping to -0.27, the lowest since 2023. Unlike the AI-driven surge when Big Tech outperformed, they are now lagging while average stocks gain. This reversal suggests a potential regime shift, with market leadership broadening beyond mega-cap tech. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-48-49-1056-AM.png?width=858&height=663&name=image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-48-49-1056-AM.png) Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter  --- #### Chart #5 —  ## Why western economies remain calm despite oil disruptions Goldman Sachs just explained why the West isn’t panicking. Global oil shipments have dropped sharply down 270 million barrels in just 3 weeks. At the same time, oil inventories across OECD Europe and the Americas are at record highs. That means Western economies aren’t feeling a supply shock. In fact, they’re insulated. Meanwhile, major US oil companies are on track for one of their most profitable years ever. So, while global supply tightens, the West isn’t struggling, it’s positioned to benefit. Which raises a bigger question: who gains from keeping the Strait of Hormuz disrupted? ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-51-15-7499-AM.png?width=836&height=552&name=image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-51-15-7499-AM.png)Source: Qasem Al-Ali --- #### Chart #6 — ## Russian oil revenues rebound strongly  Russian oil export revenues are at their highest since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine: gross income from seaborne crude exports surged to $2.46bn for the week ending 22 March, the highest since March 2022. The surge is being driven by soaring global oil prices and a US tariff waiver allowing buyers to purchase Russian crude loaded before 12 March, boosting sales to India significantly. Years of Western sanctions pressure have been undone in a matter of weeks. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-52-31-6362-AM.png?width=906&height=611&name=image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-52-31-6362-AM.png)Source: The Chart Report --- #### Chart #7 —  ## Silver posts its steepest monthly decline in over four decades Silver has dropped more than 28% this month, marking its steepest decline in 46 years. The fall is driven by rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and weaker industrial demand expectations. As a non-yielding asset, silver becomes less attractive when yields rise. Profit-taking and the unwinding of speculative positions have accelerated the sell-off, highlighting how sensitive the metal is to macroeconomic shifts and changing investor sentiment. ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-53-12-8761-AM.png?width=767&height=508&name=image-png-Mar-30-2026-06-53-12-8761-AM.png) Source: Barchart  --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Bond market vs US Treasury: who will yield?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/bond-market-vs-us-treasury-who-will-yield?hsLang=en) Nothing seems to curb the 10-year Treasury yield’s rise. Meanwhile, Japan’s currency defense is drying up it’s FX reserves and the S&P 500 is hiding something important. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 14/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [A record US-China yield gap?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/a-record-us-china-yield-gap?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, European countries are having their own bond crisis. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 07/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Nvidia’s record-breaking day](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/nvidias-record-breaking-day?hsLang=en) Victoria’s Secret is back: a $100,000 investment has quadrupled since the Fashion Show’s return was announced. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 31/08/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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