--- title: Two chokepoints, one oil shock description: From tightening oil chokepoints to mounting AI-related debt and a widening credit-market divide, energy, capital and geopolitics are telling a single story of scarcity and strain. 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You can change your settings below to refuse the use of cookies. For more information, please refer to the [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices). Mandatory cookies Functional cookies Statistics & marketing I confirm I am not a US citizen residing in the US I confirm I am not accessing this site from the US I confirm that I am not a resident of Canada (except for Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia or Alberta). Agree and confirm ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… You chose the following profile. If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) ### Two chokepoints, one oil shock From tightening oil chokepoints to mounting AI-related debt and a widening credit-market divide, energy, capital and geopolitics are telling a single story of scarcity and strain. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Monday, 07/27/2026** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/Syz-Feature_WeekIn7Charts_260727.pdf?hsLang=en) - - - - #### Chart #1 —  ## **A two-chokepoint problem for oil**  Brent crude has climbed back to $100 per barrel for the first time in two months, after Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, intensifying the Middle East conflict and stoking fears of further supply disruption. The attacks open a new front in a conflict already disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed US-Iran tensions. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has served as a key alternative export route since the conflict began. Oil markets are also grappling with repeated attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast, which handles most of Kazakhstan's crude exports, while months of conflict have depleted global inventories, raising the risk of a supply squeeze that could hurt the global economy. According to Saxo Bank, the attacks have pushed ships to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating a "two-chokepoint problem" for oil flows, adding a fresh risk premium to crude and reviving inflation concerns.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-02-43-9551-PM.png?width=853&height=444&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-02-43-9551-PM.png) Source:  zerohedge --- #### Chart #2 —  ## **Alphabet just reported NEGATIVE free cash flow for the first time in history**  The pressure may continue, as Alphabet now expects 2026 capital expenditures to reach between $195 billion and $205 billion. This raises its already exceptionally high spending forecast as the company invests heavily to gain an advantage in the AI race.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-03-40-3057-PM.png?width=910&height=547&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-03-40-3057-PM.png) Source: Hedgie --- #### Chart #3 —  ## **$1.65 Trillion in AI debt that doesn’t appear on a balance sheet**  A Nikkei investigation found that Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Oracle carry roughly $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet obligations, more than the $1.35 trillion in debt they officially disclose. These obligations, including GPU purchase agreements, data centre leases and joint ventures, remain largely hidden under current accounting rules until the related facilities go live. As new AI infrastructure comes online, these commitments will gradually appear on balance sheets. If AI demand falls short, the assets involved could be written down, with losses hitting shareholders and the private credit investors who helped finance the buildout.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-04-26-9418-PM.png?width=805&height=555&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-04-26-9418-PM.png) Source: Hedgie   --- #### Chart #4 —  ## **Carnage in hyperscaler bond land. Will stocks follow?**   Investment-grade bond spreads for hyperscalers are widening rapidly as credit investors become increasingly reluctant to finance further memory chip purchases. Credit default swap spreads, shown inverted in red, are moving in the same direction. The key question is how long hyperscaler stocks, shown in blue, can resist before following the deterioration in credit markets.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-05-13-3689-PM.png?width=798&height=444&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-05-13-3689-PM.png) Source: zerohedge   --- #### Chart #5 —  ## **US debt has been growing much faster than the economy for over two decades**  Since 2000, US debt has grown at an annual rate of 7.7%, significantly faster than nominal GDP, at roughly 4.5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield, at around 4%. By comparison, the global gold supply has increased by only about 1.5% per year. For central banks, this creates a clear contrast: government debt is becoming increasingly abundant as issuance rises, while gold remains structurally scarce. This difference helps explain why many central banks have continued to increase their gold reserves in recent years.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-05-56-7897-PM.png?width=829&height=460&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-05-56-7897-PM.png) Source:  Lukas Ekwueme, @ekwufinance  --- #### Chart #6 — ## **European gas futures are back near their highest level since the Iran war started**  Europe is losing the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) bidding war. Over the past month, European imports have fallen 35% year on year, while China's have risen 8%. Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices are again nearing their post-Iran-war peak, not because European demand has strengthened, but because Europe must pay more to attract available cargoes. Supply hasn't vanished; it's simply being redirected towards Asia; for US exporters, the destination makes little difference.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-06-37-7958-PM.png?width=823&height=513&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-06-37-7958-PM.png) Source: Bloomberg, Jack Prandelli on X  --- #### Chart #7 —  ## **Global nuclear reactor capacity is projected to grow 44% over the next decade**  Each new 1 GW nuclear reactor requires roughly 400 tonnes of uranium for its initial core load, then about 160 tonnes annually to stay operational. The first fuel loads for currently planned reactors would absorb uranium equal to nearly 90% of today's annual global mine production, before generating a single kilowatt-hour. The uranium market therefore faces more than rising recurring demand; it must first clear a massive backlog of initial core requirements.  ![](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-07-21-5578-PM.png?width=692&height=450&name=image-png-Jul-24-2026-03-07-21-5578-PM.png) Source: Bloomberg, Lukas Ekwueme, @ekwufinance  --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Bond market vs US Treasury: who will yield?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/bond-market-vs-us-treasury-who-will-yield?hsLang=en) Nothing seems to curb the 10-year Treasury yield’s rise. Meanwhile, Japan’s currency defense is drying up it’s FX reserves and the S&P 500 is hiding something important. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 14/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [A record US-China yield gap?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/a-record-us-china-yield-gap?hsLang=en) Meanwhile, European countries are having their own bond crisis. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 07/09/2026 [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) #### [Nvidia’s record-breaking day](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/nvidias-record-breaking-day?hsLang=en) Victoria’s Secret is back: a $100,000 investment has quadrupled since the Fashion Show’s return was announced. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 31/08/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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