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WEEKLY SUMMARY: Dovish Fed sparks bond and stock surge
The major US equities indices recorded gains during the week, with the S&P 500 Index finishing above the 4,000 level for the first time in two months. Favorable earnings reports in the retail and technology sectors as well as indications that the Fed is open to slowing its pace of rate hikes helped fuel the rally. Trading was light heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. The minutes from the Fed’s meeting said that a “substantial majority of participants” thought that slowing the pace of hikes would be appropriate, although the fed funds rate may end up higher than previously expected. Economic news was mixed, but signs of economic weakening generally seemed to support market hopes that the Fed would soon be able to ease its tightening pace. Yields of longer-maturity Treasury debt decreased more than shorter maturities, leading to a further inversion of the yield curve. Credit spreads of investment-grade corporate bonds tightened ahead of the holiday. European shares rose for a sixth consecutive week on hopes that central banks might slow the pace of interest rate increases. Indeed, business activity in the eurozone shrank for a fifth month in November, adding to signs that the economy may be in recession. Shares in China were modestly positive for the week as investors balanced new coronavirus restrictions against signs that authorities will provide more supportive measures to stimulate the economy. The dollar fell for the 5th week of the last 6.
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Stocks recorded broad losses, as concerns over tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of U.S. interest rates remaining “higher for longer” appeared to weigh on sentiment. Mega-cap technology shares lagged as rising rates placed a higher theoretical discount on future earnings. A Q1 revenue miss from ASML Holdings also seemed to weigh on the sector and on general optimism toward companies with AI-related earnings. Some strong economic data (e.g retail sales +0.7% vs. 0.3% expected) appeared to increase worries that the Fed would push back any interest rate cuts to the fall, if not to 2025. Conversely, downward surprises in housing market data may have furthered inflation fears by auguring continued supply tightness. As was the case last week, Fed officials expressed their concern with recent economic data.