--- title: Market Outlook 2026 description: H1 2026 image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/MktOutlook_2026_cover.png --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) ### Market Outlook 2026 H1 2026 [![Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/charles-2.jpg)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) [**Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA**](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/author/charles-henry-monchau) Chief Investment Officer **Tuesday, 12/02/2025** | - [![Pdf](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/pdf%20(1).png)](file:///C:/Users/awyneken/OneDrive%20-%20Banque%20Syz%20SA/Desktop/Syz-MarketOutlook%202026-H1_EN04.pdf) - - - -   ## As we look ahead to 2026, markets are entering a new phase defined by structural shifts in geopolitics, technology and macro policy. Our top 10 convictions outline the forces we believe will shape the year—and the opportunities they create for long-term investors. --- 1. **Global growth accelerates** We expect global economic growth to strengthen in 2026, driven by a renewed global capex cycle, still-accommodative monetary policies, ongoing fiscal support across the US, Europe and China, and a temporary easing in trade tensions. Inflation should remain warm but manageable. 1. **A new geopolitical and economic order** The world continues to shift away from the open-border, efficiency-driven globalisation of the 1990s–2010s toward a regime defined by national interest, strategic rivalry and economic security. The US–China competition will remain central. Both powers are prioritising three domains, AI, defence, and electric power, requiring tighter strategic alliances, currency war, reshoring, and greater control over critical commodities. This backdrop also implies structurally higher sovereign debt, increasingly absorbed via monetary expansion. The outcome is persistent inflation, elevated bond yields, and ongoing monetary debasement—making long-term exposure to real assets essential. 1. **The AI supercycle continues** The secular AI bull market is far from over. It is a multi-year, multi-sector growth engine. AI infrastructure investment triggers broad-based multiplier effects across construction, utilities, heavy industry, transportation, and urban development. This wave of spending extends well beyond technology alone. 1. **A broader US equity bull market** We expect US market leadership to widen beyond technology and communication services. Investors should avoid excessive concentration in a single theme and instead expand exposure to sectors poised to benefit from rising productivity and a global growth reacceleration, such as: industrials, consumer discretionary, health care, and mid-caps. 1. **US exceptionalism is here to stay—but diversify globally** Developed markets outside the US, along with emerging markets, are regaining momentum thanks to a stronger global backdrop and a weaker US dollar. Valuations abroad remain attractive relative to the US. Emerging markets, in particular, tend to outperform during Fed easing cycles and offer meaningful exposure to global tech innovation. International diversification is essential. 1. **A weaker dollar over the medium and long term** Although the dollar has stabilised recently, it remains vulnerable to fiscal and political uncertainty and the Fed’s rate-cutting path. We continue to view the Swiss franc as the strongest fiat currency. 1. **Commodities in structural deficit remain in a secular uptrend** AI infrastructure build-out, rising electricity needs and increasing defence spending are boosting demand for industrial and precious metals, as well as, critical minerals such as uranium and rare earths. 1. **G7 sovereign bonds remain poor diversifiers** Correlations between G7 government bonds and equities remain elevated, reducing their effectiveness as portfolio diversifiers. A renewed rise in G7 yields could even trigger the next market correction, making close monitoring essential. In particular, the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to serve as a key indicator for investors. 1. **Seek income diversification** Investing in bonds and companies outside the G7 can boost income while spreading risk across your portfolio. 1. **Alternatives to enhance risk-adjusted returns** Hedge funds, private debt, and infrastructure continue to offer attractive characteristics and can meaningfully improve portfolio risk/reward profiles.   --- As we enter 2026, these convictions reflect the trends and opportunities we believe will shape markets and guide investment decisions. We hope this Outlook helps you navigate the year ahead with confidence, focus, and a clear sense of where opportunities lie.  --- #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) #### [Market Outlook H2 2026](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/market-outlook-h2-2026?hsLang=en) Time for a break or a brake? **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 03/07/2026 [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) #### [Market Insights - Q2/2026](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/market-insights-q2/2026?hsLang=en) Geopolitical crosswinds: where markets go from here **[-](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/-?hsLang=en)** | 14/04/2026 [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/tag/market-outlook) #### [Dancing on thin ice](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought/dancing-on-thin-ice?hsLang=en) H2 2025 **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 08/07/2025 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. 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