--- title: ➡️ Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead. description: "➡️ The link between our Global M2 proxy and the Bitcoin continues to hold remarkably well and to point to still more short-term upside potential for the BTC.\n➡️ Interestingly, our Global M2 proxy suggests a pause in the upward trend for Equities and Bitcoin in the second half of June (taking into account the 10-week lag). But the recent resuming of the M2 upward trend, if extended, would point to a resuming of positive market dynamic for July.\n\nNB: This is NOT an investment recommendation. Liquidity is one among the numerous indicators that need to be considered\n\nSource: Syz Research" image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1748207004282.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 26 May 2025 - - - #### ➡️ Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead. ➡️ The link between our Global M2 proxy and the Bitcoin continues to hold remarkably well and to point to still more short-term upside potential for the BTC. ➡️ Interestingly, our Global M2 proxy suggests a pause in the upward trend for Equities and Bitcoin in the second half of June (taking into account the 10-week lag). But the recent resuming of the M2 upward trend, if extended, would point to a resuming of positive market dynamic for July. NB: This is NOT an investment recommendation. Liquidity is one among the numerous indicators that need to be considered Source: Syz Research [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) ![➡️ Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1748207004282.jpg) ![➡️ Our Global M2 proxy continues to point to supportive liquidity dynamics for risk assets in the weeks ahead.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1748207004282.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) #### [This is a comparison of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee statement with the one issued after the Fed’s previous policymaking meeting in July.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/this-is-a-comparison-of-wednesdays-federal-open-market-committee-statement-with-the-one-issued-after-the-feds-previous-policymaking-meeting-in-july?hsLang=en) As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision The dot plot showed that 16 of 18 participants expect at least one additional hike this year. However, this does NOT appear to be the start of an aggressive tightening cycle. Policymakers do not project further increases in the federal funds rate over the following years. A unanimous rate-hike decision, and large majority also signaling at least one more hike in 2026 hides the reality that 2027 outlooks are massively divided with four members signaling a 'policy error' implicitly with 3 seeing 2 cuts and 1 seeing 4 cuts... The statement and dots were more hawkish than expected overall as The Fed took away the projected median cut next year. October odds initially declined but then jumped (right before Midterms?) to 57% while December odds of a hike jumped to 75%... While noisy, 2027 rate-hike expectations rose to around 40bps (2026 expectations are now for another 30bps)... 👉 Warsh explained that a resilient labour market, persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions had shifted the committee in favour of a hike. 👉He described the hike as removing a degree of accommodation. In practice, the Fed may be reversing the three rate cuts delivered in 2025—leaving room for UP TO TWO additional hikes. Warsh also suggested that intense competition for capital, particularly from technology hyperscalers, may be contributing to higher US bond yields. 🔴 Conclusion: Yesterday’s hike, and potentially another 25-basis-point increase this year, gives the Fed time to see whether oil prices retreat. A third hike could follow in early 2027 if necessary, fully reversing last year’s easing cycle. Source image: zerohedge **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 17/09/2026 [Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) #### [My take on yesterday's FOMC 👇](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/my-take-on-yesterdays-fomc?hsLang=en) As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision The dot plot showed that 16 of 18 participants expect at least one additional hike this year. However, this does NOT appear to be the start of an aggressive tightening cycle. Policymakers do not project further increases in the federal funds rate over the following years. A unanimous rate-hike decision, and large majority also signaling at least one more hike in 2026 hides the reality that 2027 outlooks are massively divided with four members signaling a 'policy error' implicitly with 3 seeing 2 cuts and 1 seeing 4 cuts... The statement and dots were more hawkish than expected overall as The Fed took away the projected median cut next year. October odds initially declined but then jumped (right before Midterms?) to 57% while December odds of a hike jumped to 75%... While noisy, 2027 rate-hike expectations rose to around 40bps (2026 expectations are now for another 30bps)... 👉 Warsh explained that a resilient labour market, persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions had shifted the committee in favour of a hike. 👉He described the hike as removing a degree of accommodation. In practice, the Fed may be reversing the three rate cuts delivered in 2025—leaving room for UP TO TWO additional hikes. Warsh also suggested that intense competition for capital, particularly from technology hyperscalers, may be contributing to higher US bond yields. 🔴 Conclusion: Yesterday’s hike—and potentially another 25-basis-point increase this year—gives the Fed time to see whether oil prices retreat. A third hike could follow in early 2027 if necessary, fully reversing last year’s easing cycle. Source image: zerohedge **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 17/09/2026 [Central banks|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) #### [There is now an 89% chance of another rate hike by December](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/there-is-now-an-89-chance-of-another-rate-hike-by-december?hsLang=en) Source: Barchart **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 17/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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