13 Aug 2025
Headline number steady. Core picked up. Services is strong. Supercore accelerated further.
US CPI inflation accelerated slightly less than expected in July on an annual basis as President Donald Trump’s tariffs showed mostly modest impacts.
▶️ The consumer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That compared to the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.2% and 2.8%.
▶️Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared to the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends.
▶️A 0.2% increase in shelter costs drove much of the rise in the index, while food prices were flat and energy fell 1.1%, the BLS said.
Tariff-sensitive New vehicle prices also were unchanged though used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% jump.
Transportation and medical care services both posted 0.8% moves higher.
▶️Tariffs did appear to show up in several categories.
👉 For instance, household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase after rising 1% in June.
👉 However, apparel prices were up just 0.1% and core commodity prices increased just 0.2%.
👉 Canned fruits and vegetables, which generally are imported and also sensitive to tariffs, were flat.
Note that both overall CPI and core CPI hit the highest level since February Source: CNBC, Charlie Bilello
