--- title: Day 4. Middle East. description: "As expected, there is some escalation as the war between the U.S. + Israel and Iran is intensifying.\n\nHere’s what changed in the last 24 hours:\n\n✈️ Air Superiority Established\nUS and Israeli air forces now hold near-total air control over Iran.\nDozens of missile launchers, rear bases, and command centers were hit — especially in Tehran.\n\n🎯 But Iran is far from neutralized\nIran continues launching drones and missiles across the region.\nSome reached critical U.S. bases.\n\nNow the conflict has expanded geographically:\n• Hezbollah joined the fight from Lebanon\n• Israeli airstrikes followed inside Lebanon\n• Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia (including Ras Tanura / ARAMCO refinery)\n• US Embassy in Riyadh targeted\n• Ongoing strikes across Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Cyprus, and Israel\n\n⚠️ Notably:\n3 American F-16s were reportedly shot down in Kuwait — by error.\n\nThe Regional Fallout\n• Protests erupted around U.S. embassies in Iraq and Bahrain\n• The U.S. has called on all American citizens to leave the region\n• 20 U.S. cargo aircraft are en route to reinforce logistics and defense systems\n\nStrategic Questions Now Emerging\n▫️ Despite 4 days of heavy bombardment, the Iranian regime remains intact\n▫️ Iranian counter-strikes continue — but how deep are their missile stocks?\n▫️ Gulf countries and Israel may soon face air-defense missile shortages\n\nThis is no longer a contained confrontation.\n\nIt’s a multi-front regional escalation with air dominance on one side and missile saturation strategy on the other.\n\nThe coming days will likely determine whether this stabilizes…\nor spreads further.\n\nSource: @Clément Molin on X" image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Mar-03-2026-01-12-45-1576-PM.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - 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If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 3 Mar 2026 - - - #### Day 4. Middle East. As expected, there is some escalation as the war between the U.S. + Israel and Iran is intensifying. Here’s what changed in the last 24 hours: ✈️ Air Superiority Established US and Israeli air forces now hold near-total air control over Iran. Dozens of missile launchers, rear bases, and command centers were hit — especially in Tehran. 🎯 But Iran is far from neutralized Iran continues launching drones and missiles across the region. Some reached critical U.S. bases. Now the conflict has expanded geographically: • Hezbollah joined the fight from Lebanon • Israeli airstrikes followed inside Lebanon • Iranian strikes hit Saudi Arabia (including Ras Tanura / ARAMCO refinery) • US Embassy in Riyadh targeted • Ongoing strikes across Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Cyprus, and Israel ⚠️ Notably: 3 American F-16s were reportedly shot down in Kuwait — by error. The Regional Fallout • Protests erupted around U.S. embassies in Iraq and Bahrain • The U.S. has called on all American citizens to leave the region • 20 U.S. cargo aircraft are en route to reinforce logistics and defense systems Strategic Questions Now Emerging ▫️ Despite 4 days of heavy bombardment, the Iranian regime remains intact ▫️ Iranian counter-strikes continue — but how deep are their missile stocks? ▫️ Gulf countries and Israel may soon face air-defense missile shortages This is no longer a contained confrontation. It’s a multi-front regional escalation with air dominance on one side and missile saturation strategy on the other. The coming days will likely determine whether this stabilizes… or spreads further. Source: @Clément Molin on X [#geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) ![Day 4. Middle East.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Mar-03-2026-01-12-45-1576-PM.jpg) ![Day 4. Middle East.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Mar-03-2026-01-12-45-1576-PM.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) #### [Middle East crude exports were approaching pre-war levels.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/middle-east-crude-exports-were-approaching-pre-war-levels?hsLang=en) Then the attacks resumed. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar and Oman tell the story: ▪️ Jan–Feb: 18.9 million barrels/day ▪️ May trough: 6.5 million — down 66% ▪️ September: 14.7 million ▪️ October so far: 17.3 million — 91% of pre-war levels The recovery relied on ingenuity: Saudi pipelines diverted crude to the Red Sea, while shuttle tankers carried barrels through Hormuz to supertankers waiting outside. But the cumulative damage remains enormous: 1.7 billion fewer barrels exported between March and September than at the pre-war pace. And October’s rebound is fragile. ⚠️ The figures cover only the first two weeks. Six ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October. More than 10 empty supertankers have turned back near Fujairah. Export routes can adapt. A sustained recovery still requires security. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Gulf News **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 15/10/2026 [geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) #### [Houthis Unleash Large Missile, Drone Barrage On Saudi Arabia, Target Riyadh Airport & Aramco Facility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/houthis-unleash-large-missile-drone-barrage-on-saudi-arabia-target-riyadh-airport-aramco-facility?hsLang=en) ➡️ Saudi-backed forces launch major counteroffensive with roughly 100 Saudi fighter jets supporting attacks along the Red Sea coast. ➡️Mocha's status remains disputed: Government forces claim to have retaken the strategic port, while Houthis deny the loss. ➡️Houthis announce major missile & drone attack on Saudi territory, including against international airport in Riyadh. ➡️Houthi fighters reportedly seize homes of senior government figures, including Parliament Speaker Sultan al-Barakani's mansion. ➡️Bab el-Mandeb is increasingly at risk, raising concerns for Red Sea shipping and the wider Suez trade route. Source : Summary by zerohedge **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 06/10/2026 [geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) #### ["Oil does not need peace to fall"](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/oil-does-not-need-peace-to-fall?hsLang=en) Brent continues to carry a substantial geopolitical premium, but the physical shortage is already shrinking. Goldman estimates that the global oil deficit has narrowed from roughly 7mb/d near the start of the war in March to approximately 1mb/d in Q3. Gulf production has partially recovered, demand has weakened and supply outside the region has risen faster than expected. Oil does not need the conflict to end. It needs the disruption to stop getting worse. Source: GS / TME **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 23/09/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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