--- title: Dubai Physical Prices vs. Brent Futures description: "As highlighted by Anton Likhodedov @ALikhodedov on X: \n\nMany people are questioning why Brent futures aren’t higher and pointing out the massive premium of Dubai oil physical versus Brent futures (see post by Joumanna Bercetche on X his morning following her interview with \n\nBrent futures probably don’t fully reflect the severity of the current situation, but a few additional points—building on Michael’s chart on the right —are worth considering:\n\n1) Brent reflects forward delivery and location differences.\nBrent is currently trading the May contract, and in about two weeks the market will roll to June. These contracts represent crude loading in the North Sea, while much of the incremental demand is in Asia.\n\n2) Shipping times significantly affect the landed price.\nLooking at the Sparta dashboard, voyage times from the North Sea (for example Hound Point for Forties) to key Asian destinations are roughly:\nIndia / Singapore / South Korea: ~37–48 days\n\nBy comparison:\nFujairah → India (Sikka): under 3 days\nFujairah → Singapore: about 11 days\n\nWhen you factor in these logistics, the difference in arrival times is substantial, which explains a large portion of the price discrepancy.\n\n3) Crude quality also matters.\nAs June Goh from Sparta explains in the article below, Asian refiners are also dealing with crude slate optimization and diversification, which affects pricing dynamics.\n\nThat said, the gap between landed prices of Atlantic Basin cargoes and Fujairah cargoes has widened significantly. As a result, some Asian refiners are beginning to consider Brent despite the longer shipping time.\n\nA notable example:\nTrafigura sold a cargo of about 700,000 barrels for late-March loading to a Thai refiner. It’s reportedly the first time a Thai company has bought North Sea crude since at least 2019, when Bloomberg began tracking the data." image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Mar-17-2026-10-40-29-5311-AM.jpg --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 17 Mar 2026 - - - #### Dubai Physical Prices vs. Brent Futures As highlighted by Anton Likhodedov @ALikhodedov on X: Many people are questioning why Brent futures aren’t higher and pointing out the massive premium of Dubai oil physical versus Brent futures (see post by Joumanna Bercetche on X his morning following her interview with Brent futures probably don’t fully reflect the severity of the current situation, but a few additional points—building on Michael’s chart on the right —are worth considering: 1) Brent reflects forward delivery and location differences. Brent is currently trading the May contract, and in about two weeks the market will roll to June. These contracts represent crude loading in the North Sea, while much of the incremental demand is in Asia. 2) Shipping times significantly affect the landed price. Looking at the Sparta dashboard, voyage times from the North Sea (for example Hound Point for Forties) to key Asian destinations are roughly: India / Singapore / South Korea: ~37–48 days By comparison: Fujairah → India (Sikka): under 3 days Fujairah → Singapore: about 11 days When you factor in these logistics, the difference in arrival times is substantial, which explains a large portion of the price discrepancy. 3) Crude quality also matters. As June Goh from Sparta explains in the article below, Asian refiners are also dealing with crude slate optimization and diversification, which affects pricing dynamics. That said, the gap between landed prices of Atlantic Basin cargoes and Fujairah cargoes has widened significantly. As a result, some Asian refiners are beginning to consider Brent despite the longer shipping time. A notable example: Trafigura sold a cargo of about 700,000 barrels for late-March loading to a Thai refiner. It’s reportedly the first time a Thai company has bought North Sea crude since at least 2019, when Bloomberg began tracking the data. [#oil|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) [#Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) ![Dubai Physical Prices vs. Brent Futures](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Mar-17-2026-10-40-29-5311-AM.jpg) ![Dubai Physical Prices vs. Brent Futures](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Mar-17-2026-10-40-29-5311-AM.jpg) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Food for Thought|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) #### [Frankfurt Airport facing kerosene shortage. The reasons are maintenance of a pipeline and low river water levels](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/frankfurt-airport-facing-kerosene-shortage.-the-reasons-are-maintenance-of-a-pipeline-and-low-river-water-levels?hsLang=en) Lufthansa is taking steps to address difficulties in sourcing kerosene at Frankfurt Airport, one of Europe’s main air traffic hubs. The German airline has put in place precautionary measures involving the loading of additional fuel on certain flights, with the aim of minimising the need to refuel upon arrival at the German airport. The decision, reported by the German newspaper \*Bild\*, concerns an operational strategy known as ‘tankering’: aircraft carry more fuel than is necessary for the flight they are about to undertake, so as to have a reserve available for the next flight and reduce their reliance on fuel supplies at the destination airport. Lufthansa has stated that, thanks to the measures taken, ‘no flight cancellations are currently planned’. The measures will remain in force until further notice and will be updated as the situation develops. **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 [geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) #### [Middle East crude exports were approaching pre-war levels.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/middle-east-crude-exports-were-approaching-pre-war-levels?hsLang=en) Then the attacks resumed. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar and Oman tell the story: ▪️ Jan–Feb: 18.9 million barrels/day ▪️ May trough: 6.5 million — down 66% ▪️ September: 14.7 million ▪️ October so far: 17.3 million — 91% of pre-war levels The recovery relied on ingenuity: Saudi pipelines diverted crude to the Red Sea, while shuttle tankers carried barrels through Hormuz to supertankers waiting outside. But the cumulative damage remains enormous: 1.7 billion fewer barrels exported between March and September than at the pre-war pace. And October’s rebound is fragile. ⚠️ The figures cover only the first two weeks. Six ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October. More than 10 empty supertankers have turned back near Fujairah. Export routes can adapt. A sustained recovery still requires security. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Gulf News **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 15/10/2026 [oil|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) #### [Middle East oil flows are bending. But they haven’t broken.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/middle-east-oil-flows-are-bending.-but-they-havent-broken?hsLang=en) Despite renewed Iranian attacks, regional crude exports excluding Iran are holding at roughly 75% of pre-war levels, down from a late-September peak near 95%. Yet here’s the surprise: Average flows over October 1–10 remained above September’s average—and well above August’s. The disruption is making shipments more erratic: busy tanker crossings followed by quiet days. Kuwait is struggling most. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq are proving more resilient, with bypass routes providing crucial support. But the risks remain clear: continued attacks could disrupt both Hormuz and Red Sea traffic. The market signal to watch? Physical premiums for Middle Eastern crude have fallen to a near 2½-month low. For now, the physical market is signalling less scarcity—even as the security headlines worsen. Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberg **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 15/10/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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