---
title: 🦔 HSBC built a model to figure out if OpenAI can actually pay for all the compute it's contracted. The short answer is no. Actually not even close.
description: "The Commitments:\n\n$250B in cloud compute from Microsoft\n\n$38B from Amazon\n\n36 gigawatts of contracted capacity\n\nAll tied to a total deal value up to $1.8 trillion\n\nHSBC’s estimate: OpenAI will owe ~$620B per year in data-center rent once everything ramps… and only a third of that capacity is online by 2030.\n\n🔢 The Math (and the Problem)\n\nBy 2030:\n\nCumulative rental costs: $792B (→ $1.4T by 2033)\n\nProjected free cash flow: $282B\n\nCash from Nvidia/AMD: $26B\n\nUndrawn debt: $24B\n\nLiquidity: $17.5B\n\nEven after stacking every possible dollar, there’s still a $207B hole — plus the $10B safety buffer HSBC thinks they need.\n\n💥 And here's where it gets tricky 👇 \n\nHSBC’s model already assumes everything goes right:\n\n3B OpenAI users by 2030 (44% of all adults outside China)\n\nPaid conversion rising from 5% → 10%\n\n2% share of global digital ads\n\n$386B in annual enterprise AI revenue\n\nEven under that fantasy scenario, OpenAI still can’t pay the bills.\n\nHSBC’s suggested “solution”?\nOpenAI may need to walk away from its data-center commitments and hope Microsoft/Amazon “show flexibility.”\n\nTranslation:\nThe economics don’t work — unless everyone politely pretends the contracts aren’t real.\n\nAnd yet this is the company anchoring a $500B Stargate project and driving hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure spending.\n\nIf this is what the best case looks like… imagine the base case.\n\nMy take: be very careful with AI plays which are asset-heavy. They might disappoint in terms of shareholders' returns in the years to come. \n\nDo you remember the Telecom bubble? The long-term winners have been the asset-light companies. The asset heavy companies never recover. \n\nSource: Hedgie on X, FT"
---

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# [🦔 HSBC built a model to figure out if OpenAI can actually pay for all the compute it's contracted. The short answer is no. Actually not even close.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/hsbc-built-a-model-to-figure-out-if-openai-can-actually-pay-for-all-the-compute-its-contracted.-the-short-answer-is-no.-actually-not-even-close)

 Written by [Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/author/charles-henry-monchau) | Nov 27, 2025, 1:36:35 PM

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