If you ever feel bad, remember that in 2019 SoftBank owned 4.9% of $NVDA and sold it all for a $3.3B profit
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Gold > Nvidia since Q1 2024 *Bloomberg terminal data. Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond
Source: Edward Dowd @DowdEdward
Everyone’s arguing about who has the fastest chip. But that’s not the real disruption. Google isn’t trying to beat Nvidia on speed. Google is trying to beat Nvidia on economics. Here’s the overlooked truth: 1️⃣ The “Nvidia Tax” Nvidia sells to hyperscalers with 70%+ margins. AWS, Azure, and everyone else pay it, and pass it on to you. 2️⃣ Google plays a different game They’re the only hyperscaler that doesn’t need to profit from selling chips. They build TPUs at cost and control the entire stack: Chip → Interconnect → Data Center → Cloud. No margin stacking. No tax. 3️⃣ Training ≠ Inference Training = Ferrari (Nvidia dominates). Inference = Semi-truck (cheap, reliable, scaled). As AI matures, ~90% of spend shifts to inference. And here’s the bombshell: 👉 If Google drives cost-per-token toward zero with TPUs + aggressive cloud pricing… Raw speed stops mattering. Economics wins. Nvidia is selling generators. Google is building the electric grid. Cheap compute + massive distribution = 🏰 Empire. Source: Kris Patel

