---
title: Middle East oil flows are bending. But they haven’t broken.
description: "Despite renewed Iranian attacks, regional crude exports excluding Iran are holding at roughly 75% of pre-war levels, down from a late-September peak near 95%.\n\nYet here’s the surprise:\n\nAverage flows over October 1–10 remained above September’s average—and well above August’s.\n\nThe disruption is making shipments more erratic: busy tanker crossings followed by quiet days.\n\nKuwait is struggling most. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq are proving more resilient, with bypass routes providing crucial support.\n\nBut the risks remain clear: continued attacks could disrupt both Hormuz and Red Sea traffic.\n\nThe market signal to watch?\n\nPhysical premiums for Middle Eastern crude have fallen to a near 2½-month low.\n\nFor now, the physical market is signalling less scarcity—even as the security headlines worsen.\n\nSource: Javier Blas, Bloomberg"
---

[Syz The Moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment)

# [Middle East oil flows are bending. But they haven’t broken.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/middle-east-oil-flows-are-bending.-but-they-havent-broken)

 Written by [Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/author/charles-henry-monchau) | Oct 15, 2026, 3:42:32 PM

[View full post](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/middle-east-oil-flows-are-bending.-but-they-havent-broken)

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