20 Dec 2023

Simon White posted an excellent chart showing the potential short-term gain / long-term pain of the dual Yellen / Powell pivot

Phase 1: The Yellen Pivot. Early 2023, she decided skewing the Treasury's issuance towards bills. This bought time for risk assets, allowing Fed reserves to rise despite QT Phase 2: The Powell Pivot last week -> His dovish turn should buy more time for risk assets next year. He is literally trying to limit the growing amount of liquidity sucked from the government's ballooning interest-rate bill While this leads to short-term gain, there is a huge risk of long-term pain as these dovish operations have significantly increased long-term inflation risks and the prospect of even higher yields in the near-future. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond


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