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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### BREAKING: The US job market remains strong In December, the US economy added 216,000 jobs, above expectations of 170,000. This means that the US economy has now added jobs for 36 consecutive months. The US Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7% in December (consensus estimate was for an increase to 3.8%). Wages actually increased to 4.1% year over year from 4% in November. The market reaction is as you'd expect - yields higher, with fewer rate cuts being priced in for 2024. In light of these numbers, there is a problem with the number of FED rate cuts being priced in. Source: Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![BREAKING: The US job market remains strong](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704462542130.jpg) ![BREAKING: The US job market remains strong](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704462542130.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more Source: Bespoke [#markets|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704451880985.jpg) ![This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704451880985.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### Oh boy... Container shipping rates skyrocket 173% Carriers diverted +$200 billion in trade from the red sea due to Houthi militant threats. shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to northern Europe now costs over $4,000, up +173%. Supply-chain issues are back.. Have markets been celebrating the end of inflation too soon? Source: Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA, Bloomberg [#geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) ![Oh boy... Container shipping rates skyrocket 173%](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704440339325.jpg) ![Oh boy... Container shipping rates skyrocket 173%](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704440339325.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### Could a hot US job print invalidate the downward trend in bond yields? The US 10 year is flirting with the massive 4% levels again. A close above it and things could become even more "dynamic" to the upside. Note 21 day right here, while 50 day remains way higher. Source: Refinitiv, TME [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![Could a hot US job print invalidate the downward trend in bond yields?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704440009326.jpg) ![Could a hot US job print invalidate the downward trend in bond yields?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704440009326.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here As Goldman trader Cullen Morgan writes, after 9 consecutive weeks higher in the S&P (quite a rarity), sentiment and positioning in US equities is very stretched. On the positioning front, US futures length (see chart below) now stands near record highs. In past instances when non-dealer positioning has been greater than $130bn, near term returns have been strong, while returns further out (3-months to 1-year) tend to skew more negativeโ€ฆ With the latest data at +$158bn, Goldman traders are very wary of this now being a larger headwind. Similarly, CTA positioning in US Equities is approaching 2023 highs. Bottom-line: any geopolitical or macro news (e.g too hot US jobs print) might lead to higher bond yields might might put some downside pressure on equity markets. [#markets|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704439787164.jpg) ![One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704439787164.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### 10-Year Treasury Yield Options Bet Ahead of US jobs data, an Options Trader bet $625,000 that the 10-Year Treasury Yield would surge to at least 4.15% by Friday's close. If the yield were to jump to 4.20%, the bet would pay the trader $10 million in profit. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![10-Year Treasury Yield Options Bet](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704439351409.jpg) ![10-Year Treasury Yield Options Bet](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704439351409.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### Correlation between Equity and Bond returns Source: BlackRock, Ayesha Tariq, CFA [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Correlation between Equity and Bond returns](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704400174220.jpg) ![Correlation between Equity and Bond returns](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704400174220.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### Chinese stocks are trading near all-time lows relative to GDP, while US stocks are trading near all-time highs relative to GDP Perhaps for good reason... but that's a massive spread. Source: Swordfishvegetable [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) ![Chinese stocks are trading near all-time lows relative to GDP, while US stocks are trading near all-time highs relative to GDP](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704399919080.jpg) ![Chinese stocks are trading near all-time lows relative to GDP, while US stocks are trading near all-time highs relative to GDP](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704399919080.jpg) โฎโฎ [โฎ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1124) [1123](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1123) [1124](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1124) [1125](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1125) [1126](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1126) [1127](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1127) [โฏ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1126) [โฏโฏ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/page/1251?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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