Syz the moment

Since October 2021 Visa (V US) is trying to break the 235.50 resistance level. Is this time the one ? Source : Bloomberg

The recent shift in the 3-month US futures market has grabbed investors' attention. FED Governor Powell's increasingly hawkish tone has sparked a repricing frenzy, altering market expectations for rate cuts. The latest data shows a significant turnaround, with futures no longer projecting any cuts in 2023 and only one in the first half of 2024. This remarkable repricing indicates a growing sentiment of an extended period of higher interest rates. The resurgence of the 3-month SOFR Future June 24 contract to pre-SVB crisis levels further underscores the market's confidence in this new direction. Source: Bloomberg

The recent developments in the UK bond market have caught the attention of investors. In June, the UK yield curve (2s10s) experienced an unprecedented decline, marking one of the steepest drops in decades, and it is now approaching -100bps. This significant shift reflects the market's conviction that the Bank of England (BoE) will take decisive measures to combat inflation. However, it also raises concerns about the potential impact on the UK economy and its medium-term growth prospects. Should the BoE keep pushing the limits (rate hikes) until something breaks?

Though the Swiss National Bank is set to pilot central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, amid a changing financial ecosystem, it doesn’t necessarily have plans to launch one. The pilot is meant to test a wholesale CBDC for “a limited time” to test transactions with market participants on the SIX Digital Exchange, a spokesperson told Blockworks. The central bank sees signs in Switzerland of the development of a new financial ecosystem where transactions take place with tokenized securities and tokenized money — an environment set to make financial markets more efficient. Source: Blockworks

SPX Index has now reached the June breakout level at 4325. Are we going to see a rebound from here ? Source : Bloomberg

The European high-yield (HY) market is expected to maintain a positive technical landscape in the second half of 2023, as corporate high-yield refinancing needs remain moderate. This favorable dynamic should counterbalance any potential outflows, as observed on the US market where HY funds are recording significant outflows, but offset by sluggish activity on the primary market. Source: CreditSights

ASML Holdings (ASML NA) is back on May's breakout level. This zone is now a support. Keep an eye on it and see if it holds ? (Source : Bloomberg)

The EU market saw its first postponement of a live deal this year as borrowers struggled to tighten pricing in an active session for the market.

German building society Bausparkasse Schwaebisch Hall AG halted a €500 mio offering of 10y covered bonds after setting final terms. Source: Bloomberg