---
title: Since the start of the war, gold has been negatively correlated to oil. Oil up, gold down. Why? Because the marginal gold buyer is not the West, it is EM Asia and Turkey.
description: "Higher oil prices crush import-dependent economies like India:\nOil ↑ → Growth ↓ → Currency ↓ → Import costs ↑ → Gold demand ↓.\n\nThat’s why gold has been weak despite geopolitical chaos.\n\nIndia is curbing gold imports to defend the Rupee. Turkey already burned reserves. China is temporarily balancing the system by cutting crude imports.\n\nThe real story isn’t “gold vs fear.”\nIt’s commodities, FX, and EM liquidity transmission.\n\nMental flexibility > rigid macro views.\n\nSource: Alexander Stahel on X\nBloomberg"
---

[Syz The Moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment)

# [Since the start of the war, gold has been negatively correlated to oil. Oil up, gold down. Why? Because the marginal gold buyer is not the West, it is EM Asia and Turkey.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/since-the-start-of-the-war-gold-has-been-negatively-correlated-to-oil.-oil-up-gold-down.-why-because-the-marginal-gold-buyer-is-not-the-west-it-is-1779282968863)

 Written by [Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/author/charles-henry-monchau) | May 20, 2026, 1:17:07 PM

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