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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 9 Jan 2024 - - - #### P/E MSCI World IT vs MSCI World Tech stocks have unusually large P/E premium Source: Macrobond, TME [#Technology|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![P/E MSCI World IT vs MSCI World](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704754738525.jpg) ![P/E MSCI World IT vs MSCI World](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704754738525.jpg) 8 Jan 2024 - - - #### New Year, New Low! After a shallow rally, Chinese hashtag#equities just made a new low. Down 15% from their peak in May last year, down 22% from their 2021 peak. Sources: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) ![New Year, New Low!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704708108631.jpg) ![New Year, New Low!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704708108631.jpg) 8 Jan 2024 - - - #### Long positioning by CTAs is extreme and creates some downside risk for the market. According to UBS: "ES1 (sp500 futures) is already 100% long with first meaningful sell triggers @ -4% to -6%. NQ1 (nasdaq) is 92% long with first meaningful sell triggers @ - 4% to 6%". Source: TME, UBS [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Long positioning by CTAs is extreme and creates some downside risk for the market.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704657497573.jpg) ![Long positioning by CTAs is extreme and creates some downside risk for the market.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704657497573.jpg) 8 Jan 2024 - - - #### ENERGY STOCKS SINCE 1926 (relative to S&P) Source: BofA, The Daily Shot [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) ![ENERGY STOCKS SINCE 1926 (relative to S&P)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704654525531.jpg) ![ENERGY STOCKS SINCE 1926 (relative to S&P)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704654525531.jpg) 8 Jan 2024 - - - #### Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises Source: Bloomberg [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704627080631.jpg) ![Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704627080631.jpg) 8 Jan 2024 - - - #### BofA Harnett: "...new 'BRICS 10โ€™= 51% of global CO2 emissions, 46% of population, 45% of energy consumption, 45% of oil production, 37% of GDP (at purchasing power parity)โ€ฆ yet \<25% of global market cap, and EM equities also at 52-year low vs. US" Source: BofA, TME [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) ![BofA Harnett: ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704615866532.jpg) ![BofA Harnett: ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704615866532.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more Source: Bespoke [#markets|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704451880985.jpg) ![This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704451880985.jpg) 5 Jan 2024 - - - #### One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here As Goldman trader Cullen Morgan writes, after 9 consecutive weeks higher in the S&P (quite a rarity), sentiment and positioning in US equities is very stretched. On the positioning front, US futures length (see chart below) now stands near record highs. In past instances when non-dealer positioning has been greater than $130bn, near term returns have been strong, while returns further out (3-months to 1-year) tend to skew more negativeโ€ฆ With the latest data at +$158bn, Goldman traders are very wary of this now being a larger headwind. Similarly, CTA positioning in US Equities is approaching 2023 highs. Bottom-line: any geopolitical or macro news (e.g too hot US jobs print) might lead to higher bond yields might might put some downside pressure on equity markets. [#markets|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704439787164.jpg) ![One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1704439787164.jpg) โฎโฎ [โฎ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/287) [286](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/286) [287](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/287) [288](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/288) [289](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/289) [290](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/290) [โฏ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/289) [โฏโฏ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/312?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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