--- title: Syz The Moment | Fixed Income (69) description: Fixed Income | Syz The Moment (69) --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. You can change your settings below to refuse the use of cookies. For more information, please refer to the [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices). Mandatory cookies Functional cookies Statistics & marketing I confirm I am not a US citizen residing in the US I confirm I am not accessing this site from the US I confirm that I am not a resident of Canada (except for Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia or Alberta). Agree and confirm ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the future… You chose the following profile. If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 29 Sep 2023 - - - #### If US Treasuries would the stock market, the current drawdown for long for the stock market in history Source: Michael Gayed [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![If US Treasuries would the stock market, the current drawdown for long for the stock market in history](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695947525869.jpg) ![If US Treasuries would the stock market, the current drawdown for long for the stock market in history](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695947525869.jpg) 29 Sep 2023 - - - #### US 10 year yields keep rising in tandem with oil WTI oil now trades at $93.5/bbl. So is oil & inflation fears the only reason for bond yields to move upward? Probably not. The fact that real yields are also on the rise shows that inflation is not the only culprit. Investors are adjusting to the reality of rates staying high for longer than expected. They are also requesting positive real yield to get compensated for being invested in US treasuries at the time the US Treasury is issuing massive amount of debt while the FED keeps shrinking its balance sheet through QT. Source chart: Bloomberg [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![US 10 year yields keep rising in tandem with oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695893812814.jpg) ![US 10 year yields keep rising in tandem with oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695893812814.jpg) 28 Sep 2023 - - - #### US HY: watch out for take-off! The disparity between cash and synthetic in High Yield (HY) has recently hit levels not witnessed since October 2022. While HY credit spreads in the cash bond market appear more resilient in response to the rapid increase in real rates, the CDX HY index, comprised of 5-year CDS of HY companies, has expanded by over 60 bps in just two weeks. The question now is, how long will this disconnect between the two markets persist? Source: Bloomberg #HighYield #CreditMarkets #Finance #Investing [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![US HY: watch out for take-off!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202309_US%20HY%20vs%20CDX.png) ![US HY: watch out for take-off!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202309_US%20HY%20vs%20CDX.png) 27 Sep 2023 - - - #### TIPS - A Revival in Focus! Long-term U.S. Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) have witnessed a significant double-digit decline since the start of 2022, despite the presence of high U.S. inflation. While the inflation-linked component has acted as a safety net, providing a cushion of around 10% over 20 months, the surge in the 10-year real rate from -1.0% to 2.2% over the same period has had a marked and negative impact on the total TIPS yield (-14%). Yet, the question lingers: Is now the opportune moment to contemplate TIPS? We are currently at a level of LT real rates (2.23%) not seen since 2008. Interestingly, TIPS exhibit a lower beta compared to U.S. Treasuries (currently standing at 0.8). This attribute becomes especially valuable in light of the considerable volatility in U.S. interest rates (with the MOVE index still \>100). hould we delve into the realm of inflation-linked bonds, which constitute a global market valued at over $3.5 trillion? This consideration gains significance as uncertainties surrounding inflation persist, driven by factors like de-globalization, supply shocks, increased fiscal spending, and the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources. Source: Bloomberg [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![TIPS - A Revival in Focus!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202309_10y%20US%20TIPS.png) ![TIPS - A Revival in Focus!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202309_10y%20US%20TIPS.png) 14 Sep 2023 - - - #### Rising Italian Yields and the Looming Debt Question: What Lies Ahead for Eurozone? The 10-year Italian yield has reached its highest level since March, while the difference between the 10-year Italian and German yields is trading above 180bps for the first time since June. Beyond speculating on whether the ECB will raise interest rates to 4% or not, the significance of Italy's debt burden should be a fundamental concern, especially if they announce a new tightening of their monetary policy by ending reinvestments in their PEPP program or, worse still, making further disinvestments under the APP program. [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![Rising Italian Yields and the Looming Debt Question: What Lies Ahead for Eurozone?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202309_Italian%20spreads%20and%20yields.png) ![Rising Italian Yields and the Looming Debt Question: What Lies Ahead for Eurozone?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202309_Italian%20spreads%20and%20yields.png) 31 Aug 2023 - - - #### Recent Developments in the AT1/CoCo Bond Market: ZKB Unexpectedly Skips an AT1 Call! After the Credit Suisse turmoil, the AT1/CoCo bond market is witnessing intriguing dynamics as Zürcher Kantonal Bank (ZKB) takes an unexpected turn by choosing to bypass an AT1 call. In a landscape where banks are carefully navigating refinancing challenges, this move adds a new layer of complexity to the market. ZKB's decision to forego the AT1 call comes in the wake of Banco Santander's similar choice, signaling a trend toward cautious financial strategies in the face of fluctuating market conditions. These recent developments are shedding light on the intricate decision-making processes that banks are employing to balance their financial stability and growth prospects. [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![Recent Developments in the AT1/CoCo Bond Market: ZKB Unexpectedly Skips an AT1 Call!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202308_ZKB%20AT1.png) ![Recent Developments in the AT1/CoCo Bond Market: ZKB Unexpectedly Skips an AT1 Call!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202308_ZKB%20AT1.png) 11 Jul 2023 - - - #### These charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years. These #charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years. Such episodes ranged from mild (Mexican peso crisis in Dec 1995; HY +95bp) to moderate (Asia FX crisis in Oct 1997; HY +350bp ) to severe (GFC; HY all-time wides). The lag between the peak in 2yr yield and subsequent event varies from just a couple of weeks to just over a year, with an average being 7 months. Source: BofA, www.zerohedge.com [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) ![These charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1689056319141.jpg) ![These charts by Bank of America show that every single episode of a local peak in UST 2yr yield was followed by some risk-negative event over the past 40 years.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1689056319141.jpg) 22 May 2023 - - - #### Italy Maintains Investment Grade Status: Moody's Decision Confirmed! In a crucial development for Italy's economic landscape, Moody's has confirmed the nation's BBB- sovereign debt rating after conducting a comprehensive review of its credit profile. This decision reinforces Italy's investment grade status, providing stability and reassurance to the market. The anticipated outcome is evident in the behavior of the spread between Italian and German 10-year yields, which has remained steady, along with remarkably low volatility in this spread over the past few weeks. Source: Bloomberg [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![Italy Maintains Investment Grade Status: Moody's Decision Confirmed!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202305_iTALY%20_Germany%20spreads.png) ![Italy Maintains Investment Grade Status: Moody's Decision Confirmed!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202305_iTALY%20_Germany%20spreads.png) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/68) [66](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/66) [67](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/67) [68](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/68) [69](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/69) [70](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/70) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income/page/70) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. Follow us ## **Thinking** out loud - - - - ## **Investing** with intelligence Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks #### [Weekly Market Update](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/weekly-market-update?hsLang=en) #### [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus?hsLang=en) #### [Asset Allocation Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights?hsLang=en) #### [Semi-annual Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/semi-annual-outlook?hsLang=en) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [Terms & conditions](https://www.syzgroup.com/sites/default/files/document/2021-12/001-2_en-general_terms_and_conditions_w.pdf) - [Data protection notice](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/data-protection-notice) - [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices) - [Syzgroup.com](https://www.syzgroup.com/)