US ISM manufacturing drops to 46.3, the lowest since May 2020, the month after the COVID recession ended
March ISM Manufacturing came out at 46.3 vs. 47.5 est. & 47.7 in prior month; new orders are down to 44.3, prices paid back into contraction at 49.2, and production edged slightly higher (but still contracting at 47.8). Employment fell further into contraction (lowest since July 2020). ISM started surveying in 1948. As this chart shows, this is the 16th time the ISM has been 46.3 or lower. 12 (75%) of these instances, the economy was either in recession or about to enter a recession Source: Liz Ann Sonders, Bianco Research, Bloomberg
Eurozone headline inflation cools down: core inflation hits all-time-high
Eurozone headline inflation cools significantly to 6.9% YoY in March, down from 8.5% in February and lowest level since February 2022, AND lower than estimated 7.1% Bloomberg poll. But core inflation, which excludes volatile items, quickened to 5.7%, a fresh All-Time-High, showing inflation pressure remains high. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Germany's headline inflation eased significantly but less than expected
Germany's headline inflation eased significantly but less than expected AND underlying price pressure keeps rising. CPI dropped from 8.7% in Feb to 7.4% in March overshooting expectations of 7.3%. Core CPI rose from 5.7% to 5.9%, according to Commerzbank calculations. Source: HolgerZ
The US Treasury cash balance just reached another recent low
The latest government report is out, and the US Treasury cash balance just reached another recent low. Only $187 billion is left. Let's keep in mind that February's deficit alone cost $262 billion. Ultimately, this could mean that we are about to see another flood of Treasury issuances if/when the debt ceiling issue gets resolved. Will the natural supply/demand mismatch caused by this dynamic pressure yields higher and create further problems in the fixed-income market= Source: Boomberg, Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index rises to 1.575 - a level seen only four times during the last 30 years
In every case VIX hit at least 45. During the last two spikes, it hit 80. Source: Bloomberg, Oktay Kavrak, CFA
German Ifo business confidence shows economy's resilience against the recent banking crisis
German Ifo business confidence shows economy's resilience against the recent banking crisis, w/all 3 Ifo components rising in March. Data highlight that industry is holding up as the threat of an energy crunch recedes. BUT all 3 indexes remained a bit below long-term avg of 96.6. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Used car prices increased again for the 5th month in a row
Prices continue to firm up at historical levels, despite being down about 2% on a year-over-year basis. Inflationary forces remain stubbornly high due to structural macro drivers. The Fed just erased 5 months of QT in two weeks. Will it add fuel to the inflation fire? Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
Unemployment rate increased to 3.6%, above expectations
February US jobs data was mixed. US economy created 311k new jobs in February, above forecast of 225k but household numbers below forecasts with unemployment rate rises to 3.6% above 3.4% expected AND wages cool. Monthly wages rose 0.2% vs 0.3% expected.
