China's reopening is underway!
As shown by the average traffic congestion index in 10 major Chinese cities, China's domestic mobility is recovering rapidly!
French trade deficit expanded in November
As November trade data come in - after European energy prices had come back down - we're getting a picture of the "new normal" across Europe. Here is the French trade deficit (-) every November. Huge trade deficit in 2022, exacerbated by the maintenance of nuclear power plants... Source: Robin Brooks
A 55% YoY price increase for the classic burger...
While inflation starts to cool down in the US and Europe, it is soaring in Japan. Source: Wall Street Silver
Bulk carrier ship Glory grounded in Suez Canal
Bulk carrier Glory ran aground in the Suez Canal on Monday morning, according to shipping agency Leth, which said efforts to refloat the vessel were underway. An employee of the Suez Canal Authority, who could not be named as the news had not been officially announced, told CNBC that other ships in the canal were still able to pass the grounded Glory by around 7:30 a.m. London time. The Suez Canal is one of the world’s most important waterways, with its 120 miles hosting 30% of global shipping container traffic and 12% of all global trade worth about $1 trillion annually. Source: CNBC
US Services Gauge Shrinks Unexpectedly in Worst Slide Since 2020
Source: Bloomberg
With interest rates on the rise and monetary conditions tightening, US corporate bankruptcies are finally starting to tick higher
Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 3.5% in December, the lowest rate we've seen since 1969
There were both dovish and hawkish news in the December US job report. DOVISH -> Average hourly earnings is +0.3% MoM, lower than expectations (+0.4%) and lower than previous month (+0.4% revised lower from +0.6%). On a yearly basis: +4.6% vs. 5.1% expected and +4.8% in November. This is the lowest y/y growth since August 2021. HAWKISH -> Job growth is 223k which is lower than in November and higher than expected (200k). Unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which is the lowest since 1965... It is quite remarkable to see unemployment rate going lower after several quarters of rate hikes... BOTTOM-LINE The Fed job is not over. They will continue hiking rates as long as job growth stays above 200k per month, unemployment rate at record low and wage growth still meaningfully above 2% y/y. Source chart: Charlie Bilello
Euro-Zone inflation’s sharp drop to single-digit masks underlying pressures
Euro-Zone prices rose by 9.2% in December which is lower than economists consensus expectations (9.5%). However, core inflation hits record-high 5.2%. ECB rate hikes cycle is likely to continue. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
