A mixed message from the July US jobs report: the US economy added 187k jobs according to Establishment survey, a tiny bit below Street’s +200k forecast
According to the Household survey, the number of employed people rose by 268k. Because of this 268k number, unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, down from 3.6% in June and below estimated 3.6%. Wages ran hot, coming in at +4.4% YoY (vs Street +4.2% and vs +4.4% in June). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Global Manufacturing PMIs and Global stocks seem to be in disagreement...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Total US debt levels are expected to rise from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 118% of GDP in 2033
By 2053, Debt-to-GDP in the US is expected to hit an alarming 195%. Hopefully yesterday's downgrade of the US credit rating brings some more attention to this topic. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Debt Tsunami Begins: US To Sell $1 Trillion In Debt This Quarter, 2nd Highest In History, As Budget Deficit Explod
The $1.007 trillion in upcoming marketable borrowing is the second highest on record; only the $2.753 trillion in Q2 2020 surpasses it. Source: www.zerohedge.com, US Treasury
The Citi US Economic Surprise Index is at the highest levels since early 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
REPORTED RECESSIONS: in US Luxury Goods...
Congruent with dour commentary out of LVMH, luxury spending slowed to a -7.6% Y/Y Recession in June = 9th month of negative Y/Y growth. Source: Keith McCullough
Only 11% of US household debt has an adjustable interest rate
That means the vast majority of Americans with existing fixed rate mortgages/auto loans/student loans have not been impacted by the Fed's 11 rate hikes. Source: Charlie Bilello
US diesel vs inflation: if history is any guide, recent pop of US diesel prices could imply CPI going back over 4%
Source: BofA
