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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thoughts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thoughts) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 9 Oct 2023 - - - #### Chart by Tavi Costa -\> Ammonia prices just had the steepest monthly increase on record. Commodity cycles typically follow a rotational pattern, and these price spikes are not isolated incidents.Oil recently rallied, gasoline prices increased, natural gas started to rise, and now ammonia looks to be initiating its move. This is an inflationary era and an unmistakable one. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg [#Commodities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![Chart by Tavi Costa -\> Ammonia prices just had the steepest monthly increase on record.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696717060219.jpg) ![Chart by Tavi Costa -\> Ammonia prices just had the steepest monthly increase on record.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696717060219.jpg) 6 Oct 2023 - - - #### Looks like oil prices and bond yields have decoupled Although the oil price has crashed sharply in the past 2 days, US 10y yields have fallen only slightly. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg [#United States|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![Looks like oil prices and bond yields have decoupled](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696517770818.jpg) ![Looks like oil prices and bond yields have decoupled](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696517770818.jpg) 4 Oct 2023 - - - #### According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990. Meanwhile, oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US is set to refill… Source: The Kobeissi Letter [#United States|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696366970533.jpg) ![According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1696366970533.jpg) 28 Sep 2023 - - - #### The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge... Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv [#Macroeconomics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695846350994.jpg) ![The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1695846350994.jpg) 18 Sep 2023 - - - #### Crude oil prices are booming and is now up 34.5% since late June BUT THIS IS NOT JUST A SUPPLY STORY - WATCH OUT DEMAND AS WELL!!! The OPEC+ (Saudi/Russian) production cuts are the easy culprit to blame for higher prices. They do matter. But another equally important factor is booming demand. Bloomberg uses Department of Energy data for production, imports, and inventory changes to "input" the weekly demand for crude oil. Below is a five-week average to smooth the noise. Demand is through the roof! This suggests the economy is okay (aka "no landing") as there are few if any, signs of "demand destruction." The combo OPEC+ cutting back + demand booming = 34.5% crude oil rally in 10 weeks... Is there more to come? Source: Jim Bianco [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![Crude oil prices are booming and is now up 34.5% since late June BUT THIS IS NOT JUST A SUPPLY STORY - WATCH OUT DEMAND AS WELL!!!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1694859019034.jpg) ![Crude oil prices are booming and is now up 34.5% since late June BUT THIS IS NOT JUST A SUPPLY STORY - WATCH OUT DEMAND AS WELL!!!](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1694859019034.jpg) 4 Sep 2023 - - - #### Crude Oil $100 calls over the next year have seen their open interest rise to 120,000 as of Thursday. $90 and $100 calls are also the 2 most held strikes over the next 12 months Source: Barchart, Bloomberg [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![Crude Oil $100 calls over the next year have seen their open interest rise to 120,000 as of Thursday. $90 and $100 calls are also the 2 most held strikes over the next 12 months](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1693693660167.jpg) ![Crude Oil $100 calls over the next year have seen their open interest rise to 120,000 as of Thursday. $90 and $100 calls are also the 2 most held strikes over the next 12 months](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1693693660167.jpg) 31 Jul 2023 - - - #### The supply story in oil is getting worse Source: MenthorQ [#oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) ![The supply story in oil is getting worse](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1690697944828.jpg) ![The supply story in oil is getting worse](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1690697944828.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil/page/28) [25](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil/page/25) [26](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil/page/26) [27](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil/page/27) [28](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil/page/28) [29](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil/page/29) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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