3 Sep 2025

Tariffs, Courts & Treasuries

A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled that the Trump administration misused emergency powers to impose tariffs that have been bringing in roughly $30 billion per month. If upheld, the decision could force Washington to repay importers and remove the steepest trade taxes in a century. The case is now on an expedited track to the Supreme Court, with a key October 14 deadline looming. What’s at stake? - Congress relied on these tariff revenues to help offset this year’s tax cuts. A rollback could leave a deeper fiscal hole, unsettling Treasury buyers. - Importers say nothing changes until the court outcome, but market uncertainty is rising. - Steel and aluminum duties (1962 Act) and other tariffs (1974 Trade Act) are not affected — the dispute centers on the 1977 emergency powers. Trade policy and fiscal stability are deeply intertwined.

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