---
title: The United States has a long track record of outlasting its rivals. The Soviet Union collapsed.
description: "Japan, once predicted in the 1980s to eclipse the American economy, is now significantly smaller. China now appears to be on a similar trajectory.\n\nIn 2021, China’s GDP had risen to 76% of that of the United States, and many analysts believed it would surpass the U.S. before 2030. That expectation has since unraveled. By 2024, the U.S. economy stood at $29.2 trillion compared to China’s $18.9 trillion—a gap that has widened for three consecutive years. Meanwhile, China’s working-age population is declining, its fertility rate has dropped to around 1.0—well below replacement level—and there is little immigration to offset the demographic decline.\n\nYet America benefits from believing it faces a formidable rival. The belief is what keeps it competing.\n\nSource: Martin Varsavsky"
---

[Syz The Moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment)

# [The United States has a long track record of outlasting its rivals. The Soviet Union collapsed.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-united-states-has-a-long-track-record-of-outlasting-its-rivals.-the-soviet-union-collapsed)

 Written by [Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/author/charles-henry-monchau) | Apr 21, 2026, 2:33:34 PM

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