---
title: US CPI report is out - and it is a rather MIXED one
description: "1) Core CPI comes in cooler than expected (2.9% vs. 3.0% expected). Note however that this is the highest level since February. On a sequential basis, U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% M/M, below estimates for a 0.3% increase. \n2) Headline CPI inflation increased 2.7% Y/Y, ABOVE forecasts for a 2.6% reading. This is also the highest level since February. On a sequential basis, US CPI rose 0.3% on the month, in line with estimates.\n3) Looking at the various CPI components, it seems that tariffs are beginning to drive up prices for core goods like clothing, furniture, appliances, shoes & toys. However, falling car prices are helping to mask full impact. \n\n▶️ All in all, today’s inflation report effectively eliminates any chance of a Fed rate cut at the July 30 FOMC meeting. And if subsequent inflation readings reiterate the rise in inflation, it could jeopardize future rate cuts as well.\n\n✅ The CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed only a 2.6% probability of a fed rate cut at the meeting.\n\n\n👉 Yes, indeed. The us inflation outlook remains highly uncertain. And so is the US tariff policy. On our side, we believe that the Fed might cut rates only once in 2025.\n\nSource: Bloomberg"
---

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# [US CPI report is out - and it is a rather MIXED one](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/us-cpi-report-is-out-and-it-is-a-rather-mixed-one)

 Written by [Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/author/charles-henry-monchau) | Jul 15, 2025, 3:39:00 PM

[View full post](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/us-cpi-report-is-out-and-it-is-a-rather-mixed-one)

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