--- title: US Treasury Yield Curve Faces Crucial Test Today description: "Today, the US Treasury market faces a crucial test. Since its low in early December 2023, the spread between the 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields has surged by 20bps, now touching the highs seen in June 2023. This significant shift sets the stage for today's key event: a $21 billion auction of 30-year US Treasury bonds.\n\n🔍 Notably, the absence of 30-year bond maturities this month suggests that demand will likely stem from investors looking to lengthen their portfolio's duration. This development comes at a time when concerns were already mounting about the long end of the US Treasury yield curve, driven by factors such as negative US term premiums, a heavy supply forecast for Q1, and a resilient US economy that had witnessed a strong rally at the end of 2023.\n\n🏦 This evening's auction is more than just a routine procedure; it's a litmus test for the supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market. The results will be telling, offering vital insights into market sentiment and future directions, particularly regarding long-term government debt.\n\nKeep an eye out for our analysis on the outcome and implications of this pivotal financial event. #Finance #USTreasury #EconomicIndicators\"" image: https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202401_diff%20between%205%20and%2030%20UST%20yields.png --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANÇAIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Français](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. 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The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. 11 Jan 2024 - - - #### US Treasury Yield Curve Faces Crucial Test Today Today, the US Treasury market faces a crucial test. Since its low in early December 2023, the spread between the 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields has surged by 20bps, now touching the highs seen in June 2023. This significant shift sets the stage for today's key event: a $21 billion auction of 30-year US Treasury bonds. 🔍 Notably, the absence of 30-year bond maturities this month suggests that demand will likely stem from investors looking to lengthen their portfolio's duration. This development comes at a time when concerns were already mounting about the long end of the US Treasury yield curve, driven by factors such as negative US term premiums, a heavy supply forecast for Q1, and a resilient US economy that had witnessed a strong rally at the end of 2023. 🏦 This evening's auction is more than just a routine procedure; it's a litmus test for the supply-demand dynamics in the Treasury market. The results will be telling, offering vital insights into market sentiment and future directions, particularly regarding long-term government debt. Keep an eye out for our analysis on the outcome and implications of this pivotal financial event. #Finance #USTreasury #EconomicIndicators" [#Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) ![US Treasury Yield Curve Faces Crucial Test Today](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202401_diff%20between%205%20and%2030%20UST%20yields.png) ![US Treasury Yield Curve Faces Crucial Test Today](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/202401_diff%20between%205%20and%2030%20UST%20yields.png) #### Disclaimer This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. Read More ## Related Articles [Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) #### [The United Kingdom has purchased the most amount of French bonds out of any nation.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/the-united-kingdom-has-purchased-the-most-amount-of-french-bonds-out-of-any-nation?hsLang=en) This puts the UK at the greatest risk of potential contagion & losses if France were to default on their debt or require an IMF & European Central bank loan. When Greece experienced this in 2011 European Banking Crisis, youth unemployment skyrocketed to 60% by 2013. Source: Financelot **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 16/10/2026 [Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) #### [CoreWeave shares fell about 13% Wednesday as its 2032 bonds hit a record 14.5% yield.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/coreweave-shares-fell-about-13-wednesday-as-its-2032-bonds-hit-a-record-14.5-yield?hsLang=en) Those bonds were issued in June at 9.625%. That’s an increase of nearly 5 percentage points in four months in the yield investors demand to hold its unsecured debt. The figures behind the move: ▪️ More than $35 billion raised this year. ▪️ Around $52 billion in debt and lease obligations. ▪️ $640 million in net interest expense last quarter—roughly a quarter of revenue. ▪️ A $104 billion backlog, with revenue dependent on infrastructure delivery and customer payments. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya shared the yield chart, warning of a potential private credit bubble linked to AI. According to figures he cited, private lenders charge AI borrowers spreads of 6.2 percentage points, compared with 6.1 points for other borrowers. CoreWeave’s backlog has grown. So has the yield on its debt. Source: Hedgie **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 15/10/2026 [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) #### [What would make fund managers swap stocks for bonds? A Treasury yield near 6%.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/what-would-make-fund-managers-swap-stocks-for-bonds-a-treasury-yield-near-6?hsLang=en) According to BofA’s Michael Hartnett, investors are waiting for higher yields before making the switch. The October Global Fund Manager Survey puts the average trigger at 5.9% on the 10-year Treasury—roughly 70 basis points above current levels. Where would they move? • 12% at a 5.5% yield • 37% at 6.0% • 14% at 6.5% • 8% at 7% or higher But some aren’t waiting. 19% say yields are already high enough, and October saw the biggest covering of bond shorts in a year, according to BofA. The competition for capital is intensifying. The higher Treasury yields climb, the harder equities have to work to justify the risk. Source: Neil Sethi NEW account **[Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA](https://blog.syzgroup.com/author/charles-henry-monchau?hsLang=en)** | 15/10/2026 ## Straight from the Desk # Syz the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. [Discover more](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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