Introduction 

• The U.S. stock market had a strong start to 2024, with the S&P 500 experiencing its best beginning since 2019, rising by 10.2%. And this despite downward adjustments to Fed rate cut expectations, a surge in oil prices and a strong dollar. This bullish momentum, underscored by record lows in volatility, reflects a surge in investor optimism and positive earnings growth. Some of last year winners (AI, obesity drugs) continue to perform well but the market advance is broadening with reflationary sectors starting to outperform
• In the first part of this publication, we review the top 10 stories from the past quarter. We then share the investment conclusions of our latest tactical asset allocation committee.
• 2024 is a year of presidential election in the US. Joe Biden's administration has put in place a vast investment programme that should strengthen the United States' dominant industrial position, particularly vis-à-vis Europe. But at what cost? We compare the situation of US and Europe and the implications in terms of market preferences.
• We then have a look at Vietnam, a country which has been classified as one of the best positioned markets in Asia-Pacific for 2024 by the Asia House Annual Outlook. This article offers a comprehensive view of Vietnam's potential and obstacles on its path to economic prosperity.
• The last section focuses on the best performing asset class of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024: Bitcoin. How high can the price go? In this article, we attempt to answer this question using two very distinct valuation models

Charles-Henry Monchau Chief Investment Officer