Looking ahead to Q2.

This article explores five of the most famous financial bubbles in history. As capital floods into the technology sector, one question lingers: could AI be the next bubble?

Between 4 April and 11 April 2025, the US Treasury market experienced its worst weekly selloff in over two decades.

Looking for early impacts of President Trump on the global economy

As global trust in open markets erodes, national capitalism is emerging as a new strategy where states reclaim control over production, trade, and security to serve sovereign interests.

As diplomatic talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine continue, investors are closely watching for potential opportunities in a re-opened Russian market despite the significant risks that remain. The prospect of a ceasefire and improved relations between Moscow and Washington has triggered speculation about the future of sanctions and possible market access, fuelling interest in Russian assets that have been largely off-limits since the war began.

Having great ideas is a great idea.

In 1985, finance ministers from France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States came to an agreement in the Plaza Hotel in New York City to intentionally devalue the US dollar. Could such an accord take place this year at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate?

Burgeoning uncertainties and four major interrogations ahead of spring

Overall, the macro and liquidity conditions are still positive for risk assets, even if downside risks and uncertainties have increased recently. While earnings growth momentum continues to accelerate, equity market valuations remain rich, especially in the US. We also observe some deterioration in market dynamics: sentiment is overbought, and market breadth has been deteriorating. While we maintain a constructive view on equities, we move to a more balanced positioning in terms of asset classes and regions and downgrade our view on equities from overweight to neutral. - While we still have a structural preference for US equities over the rest of the world, we are neutralising our tactical regional stance as valuations and macro-economic momentum may lead to a continuation of the dynamics at play since the beginning of the year. - Within rates, we adopt a more neutral stance on long-term government bonds, as potential downside risks to growth now balance the uncertainties around the inflation outlook. We continue to favour the 1-10 years segment in the fixed income allocation. - We keep our gold and hedge funds exposure for diversification purposes. Our stance on currency –overweight dollar against major pairs except Swiss franc— is unchanged.