Brace for elections in Europe and keep a close eye on inflation.

H2 2024

As demonstrated in the recent European elections, populism is in vogue in many developed countries. This is a long-term trend with major macroeconomic consequences.

1. The long view by Adrien Pichoud,Chief Economist 2. European equities: reasons to be fearful, reasons to be cheerful by Gaël Combes,Head of Equities 3. Fixed income: OAT spreads on the rise while credit spreads remain well behaved by Gaël Fichan, Senior Portfolio Manager – Head of Fixed Income 4. Forex: Euro is (again) under pressure by Adrien Pichoud

According to Statista, the 10 largest asset management companies manage approximately 30% of the world’s assets under management as of June 2024. And it’s unlikely that this concentration of assets has fallen over the past two years. How can we explain such a craze for management behemoths?

The recent presidential elections in Mexico, held on June 2, 2024, have created both uncertainty and opportunity in the bond market. Despite short-term volatility, there is a strong case for increasing exposure to Mexican sovereign bonds in local currency. Mexico benefits from a strong relationship with the United States and structural shifts like nearshoring, making it a promising landscape for fixed income investments.

Jim Simons, nicknamed the “Warren Buffet of algorithms”, passed away last month at the age of 86. Below, we attempt to shed some light on the investment strategy of his Medallion fund, one of the most successful Hegde funds in history.

Key takeaways • We believe global economic growth could soften but will likely remain positive while the disinflation trend should stay in place. This, coupled with monetary and fiscal policy support ahead of the US elections, is creating an attractive backdrop for equity markets in the months ahead. • Within our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance, we recommend clients to go underweight Fixed Income and overweight U.S and European stocks while staying underweight Emerging markets stocks. Commodities and Gold are still useful portfolio diversifiers. We are staying long dollars. • There is one change within our preference grid this month: we increase Government bonds 1-10 years from NEUTRAL to POSITIVE

Nokia's first model reappears in redesigned form. With its simplicity and basic functionality, the "boring phone" offers an escape from the incessant distractions of smartphones. Could this give the brand a new lease of life?

As financial markets brace for the release of Japan’s April 2024 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected to slow to 2.4% from March’s 2.9%, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stands at a pivotal junction. This forthcoming data, a stark contrast to the peak of 4.3% in July 2023, highlights the complexity of the BoJ’s monetary policy landscape amid a significantly depreciated yen. The continued weakness of the yen, despite ending the world’s only negative interest rate policy in March, underscores the profound challenges the BoJ faces. This focus explores the strategic manoeuvres within the larger context of global economic pressures, examining the implications of potential policy shifts not just for Japan, but for the broader global fixed income markets.