The #sp500 has been doing rather well but what you find underneath doesn't look as pretty...
Since June 1: - 89% of stocks are down more than 10% - 54% more than 20% - 29% more than 30% - 7% more than 50% Just carnage out there... Source: Morgan Stanley Connor Bates
Google overtakes Anthropic in the odds to lead the AI race at year-end, worrying investors ahead of Anthropic’s IPO.
43% chance. Source: Polymarket Money @PolymarketMoney
OPENAI EXPECTS $70B IN ANNUALIZED REVENUE BY END OF 2026
Maybe Axios was counting future ARR... Source: Negligible Capital @negligible_cap Bloomberg
The 4-week average of initial claims equaled its lowest level ever (57 years).
I cut off the peaks so we can better see the troughs. -- For decades, this was THE gauge to measure the labor market. Now it's making a case this is the best US labor market in our lifetime... Source: Jim Bianco
SpaceX wants to become your mobile carrier.
The company has agreed to buy nationwide 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management—a move that could bring Starlink closer to competing directly with America’s telecom giants. The market reaction? AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile fell in extended trading. SpaceX rose around 2.5%. The strategic shift is clear: Starlink wants to serve customers directly, with less reliance on traditional operators. And it has a powerful engine behind it: its connectivity business generated $4.29 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income in Q2. But spectrum alone won’t solve everything. FCC approval is still required. Reliable indoor coverage in cities would likely require ground-based towers. No launch date has been announced. The next telecom battle could combine satellites above us with towers around us. How much of your next phone bill could eventually go to SpaceX? Source. Gurgavin, CNBC
Masayoshi Son is seeking up to $100 BILLION from Gulf investors for his next AI bet.
After investing $65bn in OpenAI, the SoftBank founder reportedly wants a fund to buy companies and transform their operations using AI and robotics. The ambition is enormous. So are the financing stakes. SoftBank shares have fallen more than 30% from their June peak. OpenAI’s delayed IPO could complicate further investment plans. SoftBank recently raised over $11bn through a record junk bond offering, paying yields as high as 9.75%. Gulf backing could provide fresh firepower—but talks offer no guarantee of a deal. Son has delivered spectacular wins, including Alibaba, and costly failures, including WeWork. The question now: can AI transform acquired businesses fast enough to justify the capital—and debt—behind the vision? Source: FT
French companies now borrow CHEAPER than the French state
€215bn of corporate bonds trade with lower spreads than government bonds - 18x more than in January. That's 38% of the IG market now pricing the government as the risk, not the companies. Source: Nic @puckrin Bloomberg
This is what crowd out looks like
Source: Jason Furman
