Hedge funds were caught offside by the US stock market rally:
The US hedge fund long/short ratio has fallen below 2.0, even lower than during the 2025 April sell-off. This is despite equities trading near record highs. This comes as last week saw the largest net sales by hedge funds year-to-date, driven by long sales concentrated in US Tech Hardware and short additions focused on US Software. By comparison, the ratio was as high as 2.5 in December last year. Furthermore, retail investors recorded their largest weekly outflows year-to-date, driven by semiconductors, according to UBS. Source: UBS, Global Markets Investor
US Treasury just did the largest Treasury buyback in HISTORY.
Treasury bought back $15,000,000,000 of its own debt to improve liquidity. Source: Bull Theory
Michael Burry just called the bottom on software stocks
He opened a new 3.5% position in PayPal $PYPL at $49.38 yesterday And is adding Salesforce $CRM and MSCI $MSCI this morning, per his Substack. His recent purchases: • PayPal $PYPL • Fiserv $FISV • Adobe $ADBE • Autodesk $ADSK • Veeva $VEEV Source: Michael Burry Stock Tracker
The Nasdaq-100 is up 12 days in a row - something it hasn't done since July 2017...and has only surpassed this length of win-streak, four times in its history...
Source: zerohedge
The S&P 500's rally has likely been driven by short covering and positioning adjustments as opposed to fresh capital, according to LPL Financial.
"Trading volume has been notably light, running below its year‑to‑date average for each of the past five sessions despite the advance in headline indices," Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at the wealth management firm, wrote in a note on Thursday. "This suggests the move higher is being propelled more by short covering and forced positioning adjustments than by fresh capital being put to work." Source: Neil Sethi
The cheapest bubble ever? Nasdaq trades at 22x next 12M earnings, which below 5Y and 10Y average.
Bill Ackman believes "some of the best businesses in the world have become available at some of the lowest valuations in their history." Some examples: 1. $META – Meta Platforms - FWD P/E: 22x - Revenue: +30% YoY 2. $AMZN - Amazon Inc. - EV/EBITDA: 16x - Revenue: +14% YoY 3. $V - Visa Inc. - FWD P/E: 23x - Revenue: +15% YoY 4. $MSFT - Microsoft Inc. - FWD P/E: 22x - Revenue: +17% YoY 5. $UBER - Uber Technologies - P/FCF: 16x - Revenue: +20% YoY (These are NOT investment recommendations) Source: Bloomberg, Citadel,
Asia and Europe are running out of jet fuel:
Jet fuel prices rose +70% since the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran six weeks ago, to $4.24 a gallon, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index. Europe has ~6 weeks of jet fuel remaining, though the situation varies significantly across the continent, with Britain, Iceland, and the Netherlands most at risk, while Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland hold more comfortable stocks, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. This comes as only ~10% of a barrel of oil goes to jet fuel, making it the most vulnerable refined fuel to supply disruptions, according to GasBuddy. After China and Thailand stopped exporting jet fuel to meet domestic needs, import-dependent markets including Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan began running out of supply. Major European airlines including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, and Ryanair have begun cutting flights and rationing fuel, with some Italian airports already restricting supply. Tokyo-London round-trip airfares on ANA's nonstop service surged +90% over the 50 days surrounding the start of the Iran war, to ~$3,010, according to Nikkei. Fuel surcharges on Japan-Europe routes are expected to exceed ~$503, per ticket if current kerosene prices persist, with JAL and ANA both considering raising surcharge caps. Source: Global Markets Investor, Brut
Monster squeeze won't stop: most shorted stocks up 24% since March 30
Source: zerohedge
