US private credit is diverging from public markets at an alarming pace
This comes as the private credit market faces growing investor scrutiny over valuations, underwriting standards, and rising redemption requests from clients. There is also increasing concern that AI will disrupt the software companies that make up a large portion of private credit portfolios. Historically, the private credit proxy index has had a 94% correlation with high yield credit spreads. If the correlation reasserts, we could see a spike in high yield credit spreads, which could eventually spread into stocks and trigger a bear market. Credit markets tend to lead equities, and right now, they are flashing a clear warning. Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor, Macrobond
Russian oil export revenues are at their highest since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine
Gross income from seaborne crude exports surged to $2.46 billion for the week ending March 22, the highest since March 2022. The 4-week average is up to $1.71 billion per week, up from $900 million in January. This comes as the value of Russian crude exports has DOUBLED over the last 3 weeks, rising from an average of $135 million per day in January to $270 million per day now. The surge is being driven by soaring global oil prices and a US tariff waiver allowing buyers to purchase Russian crude loaded before March 12, boosting sales to India significantly. Years of Western sanctions pressure have been undone in a matter of weeks. Source: Global Markets Investors, Bloomberg
This month is proving painful for macro traders:
Brevan Howard Master Fund: -6% MTD (through March 20) Brevan Howard Alpha Strategies: -3.7% MTD (through March 20) Taula: -9.6% MTD (through March 20) Caxton Macro: -15% MTD (through March 20) Source; Bloomberg, Nishant Kumar
JP Morgan has launched a basket of credit default swaps designed to let hedge funds bet against the debt of $GOOGL, $AMZN, $ORCL, $META, and $MSFT
Big Short 2 Coming? Source: Barchart
Why Memory Stocks Crashed Today: TurboQuant Just Changed The Game With "Google's DeepSeek Moment"
Micron Technology (MU) fell 17% in 5 days, losing $90B market cap (now $430B), alongside Sandisk, Seagate, and Western Digital. Not earnings, but Google’s TurboQuant cutting memory use 6x, boosting inference 8x shocked markets. By reducing AI hardware needs, it threatens memory demand, signaling a shift toward software efficiency over hardware dominance. Source: Provided text
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees Wednesday restricting cash and gold exports as part of a broader campaign to combat the shadow economy and curb capital flight.
Under one decree, carrying ruble cash across the border of Russia to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will be prohibited in the amount equivalent to more than $100,000 at the exchange rate of the Bank of Russia from April 1, with certain exceptions. The other decree bans the export of gold bars weighing more than 100 grams from Russia starting May 1. It includes some exceptions and does not apply to commercial banks. Both decrees were published on the government portal. Source: www.aa.com.tr, Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy
What happened to luxury stocks ?
Current Drawdowns: EssilorLuxottica: -39% Hermès: -41% Ferrari: -43% LVMH: -49% $RACE $RMS $MC $EL Source: Fiscal.ai
The limited flow of traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now sailing exclusively through an IRGC-controlled corridor requiring specific clearance codes and an Iranian escort service.
Source: LLoyd's List
