Syz the moment

The US public debt just hit another RECORD of $35.8 TRILLION. In less than a month, the total debt SPIKED by $700 BILLION. This is $23 BILLION A DAY. To make things worse, these forecasts assume lower interest rates over the next year... Source: Global Markets Investor

US net interest payments as a share of GDP are expected to reach a record 4.6% next year. That would more than DOUBLE World War 2 levels and exceed the all-time highs seen in the 1990s. This is also much higher than net interest as a % of GDP in all 38 OECD countries. Countries with relatively high interest such as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal are expected to reach interest-to-GDP ratios that are HALF the size of the US. To make things worse, these forecasts assume lower interest rates over the next year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, OECD, Tavi Costa

The US Dollar share in global payments jumped to 49% in 2024 the highest since 2012. This is up from ~40% at the beginning of 2022. The Euro share has plummeted to ~21%. The US dollar fall does not look so imminent. Source: Global Markets Investor

More government spending only generates more debt and stagnation, and with years of printing, the yen keeps depreciating. Graphs JP Morgan and Bloomberg thru Daniel Lacalle on X

While the fed is still in qt mode (it has decreased the size of its balance sheet by $200B between May and September), the PBOC is in qe mode having increased its balance sheet by $560B between May and September... Ne-net liquidity is increasing. With global central banks cutting rates at the most aggressive pace since the pandemic and with the PBOC expanding the size of its balance sheet almost 3x more than the Fed is reducing it, it will be interesting to see the consequences on inflation + on gold, silver, etc. Source chart: Jeff Weniger

~33% of the $35.7 trillion federal debt is held by government funds, including Social Security and the Fed. Over 25% is owned by foreign governments with the most held by Japan and subsequently China. ~15% is held by mutual investment funds. Source: Global Markets Investor

China's debt-to-GDP ratio hit a MASSIVE 366% in Q1 2024, a new record. Since 2008, the ratio has more than DOUBLED. Breakdown: Non-Financial Corporates: 171% Government: 86% Households: 64% Financial Corporates: 45% Even with this huge debt, China cannot achieve a 5% GDP growth target. How much additional leverage do they need to boost growth? And at what cost? Source: Global Markets Investor, IIF, Wells Fargo

China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, and though consumption and factory output figures beat forecasts last month a tumbling property sector remains a major challenge for Beijing as it races to revitalise growth. See below key China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y [Est.+4.5%] Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y [Prev.+5.0%] Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y [Est.2.5%] Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y [Est.4.5%] Jan-Sept fixed asset investment 3.4% y/y [Est.3.3%] Sept Unemployment 5.1% [Prev. 5.3%] Source: Reuters, MacroMicro