Straight from the Desk

Syz the moment

Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long.

12 Jul 2024

In Germany, the number of corporate insolvencies up by a third.

In April 2024, the local courts reported 1,906 corporate insolvencies. The courts put the creditors' claims from the corporate insolvencies reported in April 2024 at ~€11.4bn. In April 2023, the claims had totaled ~€1.3bn. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

12 Jul 2024

China posts biggest monthly trade surplus in at least 24 years, nearly $100B in June - Bloomberg

China’s trade surplus soared to an all-time high in June, with a jump in exports overwhelming an unexpected decline in imports and raising the risk of greater trade tensions. Exports rose to $308 billion, expanding for a third straight month to the highest level in almost two years, the customs administration said Friday. Imports fell to $209 billion, leaving a record trade surplus of $99 billion for the month. The growing imbalance has spooked China’s trade partners, who have responded with more tariffs on Chinese imports including electric vehicles. This tension has worsened ties between the European Union and Beijing, which this week opened a tit-for-tat probe into the EU’s trade barriers in what could bring the economies closer to a trade war. The surplus “reflects the economic condition in China, with weak domestic demand and strong production capacity relying on exports,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management. However, “the sustainability of strong exports is a major risk for China’s economy in the second half of the year. The economy in the US is weakening. Trade conflicts are getting worse.” Source: Bloomberg

11 Jul 2024

An important US macro data is expected today: the CPI inflation data for June. The median forecast for headline CPI inflation is 3.1%, but markets are showing a wide range.

Prediction markets currently show that there is a 19% chance of June CPI inflation coming in ABOVE 3.1%, according to Kalshi. On the other hand, there's a 31% chance of inflation coming in BELOW 3.1%. There's even a 5% chance of CPI coming in above 3.3%, which would put inflation back on the rise. If CPI inflation comes in as expected, it would mark the 3rd straight monthly decline in YoY inflation. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

10 Jul 2024

Oops... I missed this one... Russia's economy has defied sanctions in the two years since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022

So much so that the World Bank is now classifying Russia as a "high-income country." On Monday 1st of July, the World Bank announced it has upgraded Russia from an upper-middle-income country to a high-income country, according to a report from the financial institution's economists. "Economic activity in Russia was influenced by a large increase in military-related activity in 2023," World Bank economists wrote in their report. Last year, Russians earned $14,250 per person on a gross national income basis. The World Bank's upgrade confirms reports from Russia that suggest the growth is primarily driven by wartime activities that generate demand for military goods and services, making some sectors winners in Russia's wartime economy. Russia's trade jumped by nearly 7% last year, while activities in the financial sector and construction grew by 6.6% and 3.6%, respectively. This boosted Russia's real GDP — which is economic growth adjusted for inflation — by 3.6%. The development has made some poor Russians better off financially, complicating any calculus over how to end the war.

8 Jul 2024


US government spending as a % of GDP is now ~43%, in line with THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS. This is just 1 % below World War II levels. Only the COVID crisis saw higher expenditures as a share of GDP of 54%... Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor

5 Jul 2024

Latest US jobs numbers show economic momentum keeps cooling: Non-farm-payrolls rose by 206k jobs in June, ahead of 190k forecast.

However, 2 months net revisions were NEGATIVE with -110k. Moreover, government employment rose by a whopping 70k while PRIVATE employment with 136k was below estimates. Unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.0% due to higher labor participation rate. Wage rose 3.9% YoY in line w/estimates. Bottom-line: these numbers seem to confirm our thesis that the US job market is NORMALIZING hence reinforcing the disinflation trend which will ultimately enable policy makers to NORMALIZE. More to come from our Chief Economist Adrien Pichoud... stay tuned... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

4 Jul 2024

Another new low for the Citigroup US surprises index on the back of poor macro numbers this week (ADP employment, ISM services, etc.)

Source: Bloomberg, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT, CFTe, MSTA

4 Jul 2024

Italians make in real terms less today than they used to in 1990, one really needs to admire how calm they stay about it.

Chart: Michel A.Arouet, @heimbergecon

Thinking out loud

Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts.

Follow us

Thinking out loud

Investing with intelligence

Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks