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29 Jan 2024

All the headline numbers have showed that the labor market is incredibly strong

But is it really? Currently, the US has a record ~8.6 MILLION people that are holding 2 or more jobs. Since 2020, nearly 2.6 million people have taken on an additional job. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter

29 Jan 2024

Interesting FT article highlighting the improvement of global liquidity (contributor -> Cross Border Capital as contributor)

Flows of global liquidity accelerated higher into early 2024, expanding by 9 per cent at an annual rate from September, led by strong increases in Japan and China In 2024, we expect greater liquidity support from central banks as more policymakers turn towards monetary policy easing. Aside from the Fed, the People’s Bank of China is the obvious central bank to watch as it already contributed almost one-fifth of the total increase in global liquidity last year.

23 Jan 2024

Japan is expected to be short 11 million workers by 2040

Source: Win Smart, FT

15 Jan 2024

The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.

Source: Tavi Costa

5 Jan 2024

BREAKING: The US job market remains strong

In December, the US economy added 216,000 jobs, above expectations of 170,000. This means that the US economy has now added jobs for 36 consecutive months. The US Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7% in December (consensus estimate was for an increase to 3.8%). Wages actually increased to 4.1% year over year from 4% in November. The market reaction is as you'd expect - yields higher, with fewer rate cuts being priced in for 2024. In light of these numbers, there is a problem with the number of FED rate cuts being priced in. Source: Bloomberg

4 Jan 2024

The Druckenmiller Recession indicator continues to plummet

Source: Win Smart, TS Lombard

4 Jan 2024

US Hiring plunged by 363K in November, the biggest monthly drop since July 2020

Vacancies fell in November to 8.79 million, lowest since 2021 Quits rate dropped to lowest level in more than three years Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg

22 Dec 2023

Goldilocks continue with economic data (in red) remaining sluggish and financial conditions (in green) dramatically 'loosening'...

Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg

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