Goldman: to escape deflation and for the rally to be sustainable, China's M1 has to overtake its M2.
For that to happen, China will need to unleash a historic credit impulse (record new debt creation, launch QE) and global inflationary shockwave. Source: zerohedge
‼️IN REALITY US JOB MARKET SHED 458,000 PRIVATE JOBS IN SEPTEMBER‼️
Not seasonally adjusted private sector workers FELL by 458,000 in Sep. Government jobs SPIKED 918,000 This largely came as young people left summer jobs and returned to school while teachers went back to work. Source: Global Markets Investor
US job market is cooling down...
US Private businesses added 143,000 workers to their payrolls in September. Adjustment was almost 2x prior Septembers elevating the print,!!! On a non-seasonally adjusted basis payrolls FELL 260,000, the worst September in history. Source: Global Markets Investor
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GERMANY ???
Most economic data in the world's third-largest economy has come below average economists' expectations over the last 2 years. Germany is also on track for 2nd straight year of SHRINKING GDP, for the 1st time since 2003. Chart: @AugurInfinity thru Global Markets Investor
Total US debt explodes to $35.7 trillion on Oct 1, up $345 billion from Sept 27.
Source: www.zerohedge.com
😱 The shocking chart of the day: US PUBLIC DEBT GROWTH HAS BEEN MASSIVE 😱
In 2008, the US federal debt was $9.4 trillion while the US GDP was $14.7T with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 64%. Now, the public debt is $35.7 TRILLION (Total US debt added another $345 billion between Sept 27 and October 1st...) and the US GDP is $29.0 TRILLION with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 122%... What is the pain thresold for the bond market ??? Source: Global Markets Investor, FRED
France has always missed its fiscal deficit forecasts
France has the highest tax burden in Europe, so cannot increase taxes without throttling growth. Spend is mostly pensions & local governments And with political paralysis there won’t be any structural reforms. Is a fiscal crisis looming? Source: Michel A.Arouet, Oxford Economics
Fed Chair Jerome Powell just said the recent 50BPs interest rate cut shouldn’t be interpreted as a sign that future moves will be as aggressive - CNBC
“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance. But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. “The risks are two-sided, and we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting” The market currently thinks there's a 68.2% chance Jerome Powell and the Fed cut rates by 25BPs at the next FOMC meeting Source: CME FedWatch Tool
