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17 Jun 2024

#china #macro: Retail sales beat expectations

The strong growth in retail spending is particularly notable given the continued pressure on the property sector, with negative spillovers to household sentiment. It’s probably a relief to a government looking to reset the economy over time. Source: CNBC. Bloomberg, Mohamed El Erian

14 Jun 2024

There are 3 sure things in life: death, taxes… and the rise of National debt (whoever is in the White House)

Source: EricOfRivia⚡️🍕

13 Jun 2024

BREAKING >>> The Fed held rates unchanged as expected...

*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25-5.5% TARGET RANGE And changed wording on inflation (from a "lack" of progress): *FED: INFLATION MADE MODEST FURTHER PROGRESS IN RECENT MONTHS BUT... The dot-plot was hawkish, adjust to just one 25bps cut in 2024 (and four 25bps cuts in 2025) *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN '24 VS 75 BPS *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 100 BPS RATE CUTS IN '25 VS 75 BPS There is another notable development: The longer-run estimate of the federal funds rate has gone up to 2.8% now, in the median forecast. That’s the second straight increase. Last time it had ticked up to 2.6% from 2.5%. So, in six months, policymakers have added more than a quarter percentage point to where they see the benchmark rate over the longer haul -- the so-called neutral rate. Additionally, The Fed increased its end-2024 expectations for inflation...but kept its unemployment expectations unchanged... There were 10 Fed members who saw rates at 4.625% or below by end 2024 in March... now there are none... There were NO dissents today, extending the streak of zero votes against the FOMC policy decision to 16 meetings, the longest period of no dissents since Alan Greenspan’s 17-meeting streak from August 2003 to September 2005. Today’s reassuring CPI report was relayed to FOMC members during the meeting, but many may be waiting for additional inputs (eg, PPI, PCE) before changing their forecasts. Bottom-line: The Fed re-arranged 2024-2025 dots from (2+3) to (1+4), and marked-to market their Core PCE forecast for year-end - signalling they are just being extra careful, and want some more evidence before committing to a cut. On our side, we still expect monetary policy to normalize in the months to come. We expect the Fed to continue their "meeting by meeting" approach with our base case being a cut in September. Indeed, it will take at least several more months of data to gain confidence that inflation is behaving in a manner the Fed finds acceptable. One key takeaway from today is that there’s a significant number of FOMC members that may prefer to wait even longer than September if upcoming data do not give them additional cover. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com

13 Jun 2024

June FOMC decision >>>

The biggest surprise in the dot plot: 3 cuts in 2024 revised to just 1 cut Source: zerohedge

13 Jun 2024

This chart from BofA is among Powell worst nightmares... and explain the FED reluctance in cutting rates too fast.

They will remain data dependent.

13 Jun 2024

With fiscal deficit over 5% during good times France is at risk of facing a debt crisis whoever wins next elections

Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet

13 Jun 2024

japan just sold $17 billion worth of Foreign Debt, the largest sale in 9 years...

Source: Bloomberg, Barchart

13 Jun 2024

BREAKING: May PPI inflation was unchanged, at 2.2%, below expectations of 2.5%.

Core PPI inflation fell to 2.3%, below expectations of 2.4%. This ends the first 3 consecutive monthly increase in PPI inflation since April 2022. Another welcomed sign by the Fed after CPI. YoY Growth: PPI (May), 2.2% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.2%) Core PPI, 2.3% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.4%) MoM Growth: PPI (May), -0.2% Vs. 0.1% Est. (prev. 0.5%) Core PPI, 0.0% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.5%)

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