The 60/40 portfolio doesn't fit all macro regimes by Alfonso Peccatiello / The macro compass
The 60/40 portfolio (60% equities / 40% bonds) did work great for 3 of the last 4 decades, and that's because the macro regime was one of predictably low growth and inflation, and Central Banks ready to support markets and economies. But are you sure the next 10 years be the same as the last 10 years?
Gold as the ultimate macro hedge / diversifier within a multi-assets portfolio
This might be one of key investment theme of the current decade
All the headline numbers have showed that the labor market is incredibly strong
But is it really? Currently, the US has a record ~8.6 MILLION people that are holding 2 or more jobs. Since 2020, nearly 2.6 million people have taken on an additional job. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
Interesting FT article highlighting the improvement of global liquidity (contributor -> Cross Border Capital as contributor)
Flows of global liquidity accelerated higher into early 2024, expanding by 9 per cent at an annual rate from September, led by strong increases in Japan and China In 2024, we expect greater liquidity support from central banks as more policymakers turn towards monetary policy easing. Aside from the Fed, the People’s Bank of China is the obvious central bank to watch as it already contributed almost one-fifth of the total increase in global liquidity last year.
Japan is expected to be short 11 million workers by 2040
Source: Win Smart, FT
The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade.
Source: Tavi Costa
BREAKING: The US job market remains strong
In December, the US economy added 216,000 jobs, above expectations of 170,000. This means that the US economy has now added jobs for 36 consecutive months. The US Unemployment Rate held steady at 3.7% in December (consensus estimate was for an increase to 3.8%). Wages actually increased to 4.1% year over year from 4% in November. The market reaction is as you'd expect - yields higher, with fewer rate cuts being priced in for 2024. In light of these numbers, there is a problem with the number of FED rate cuts being priced in. Source: Bloomberg
The Druckenmiller Recession indicator continues to plummet
Source: Win Smart, TS Lombard
