Syz the moment

This also marks a fifth consecutive monthly increase for the US money supply. Over the last 10 months, the amount of US Dollars in circulation has jumped by a MASSIVE $484 billion. In effect, the money supply is now just $548 billion below a new all-time high. After a brief decline, the quantity of money in the financial system is surging again raising concerns about another inflation wave. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Kudos to Finance minister Mehmet Simsek and his economic team for this turnaround. This is an impressive adjustment! Source: Robin Brooks

Source: @Kurtsaltrichter on X, www.tradingeconomics.com

This metric has DOUBLED in just several months, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. To put this into perspective, median inflation expectations have been at ~3% for the last 3 years. Consumer sentiment has been severely damaged by rising prices of necessities, and expectations are getting worse. This comes as core CPI inflation has been above 3% for 41 months, the longest streak since the early 1990s. Inflation is still a major concern for Americans. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

Core CPI inflation RISES to 3.3%, above expectations of 3.2%. For the first time since March 2023, Core CPI inflation is officially back on the rise. Same story on CPI as previous month: Total is “ok” at +2.4% because energy is collapsing, but core is still +3.3% and Services remain HOT & STICKY at +4.7%. Transport +8.5% Indeed, while September CPI inflation is at 2.4%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities: 1. Car Insurance Inflation: 16.3% 2. Transportation Inflation: 8.5% 3. Homeowner Inflation: 4.9% 4. Car Repair Inflation: 4.9% 5. Rent Inflation: 4.8% 6. Hospital Services Inflation: 4.5% 7. Food Away From Home Inflation: 3.9% 8. Electricity Inflation: 3.7% Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, The Kobeissi Letter

Investors are on tenterhooks as Beijing prepares to deliver fresh policies over the weekend that could jumpstart its economy. China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on “intensifying” fiscal stimulus policies, the country’s State Council Information Office said. With Beijing at risk of missing its full year economic growth target of 5%, some analysts are confident that authorities are ready to deliver major fiscal stimulus at the highly anticipated event, while others remain skeptical. Most economists expect some sort of additional stimulus, but there are many differing views on its size as well as the priorities of the package. Some have floated a figure between two and three trillion yuan (the equivalent of $282.8 billion to $424.2 billion), while others have suggested 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion). Source: Barchart, CNBC

▪ ‘Substantial majority’ backed half-point rate cut ▪ ‘Some’ officials would have preferred quarter-point cut ▪ ‘Almost all’ officials saw higher risks to labor market ▪ ‘Almost all’ participants saw lower inflation risks The key takeaway >>> FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut While there was only one dissent, the FOMC Minutes show "some" officials preferred a 25bps cut. Despite the apparent dovish pivot, expectations for rate-cuts (this year and next) has plunged dramatically - see chart below Source: Stocktwits, zerohedge

Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg