JP Morgan AM chart on electricity inflation.
The AI/Datacenter effect is clearly visible. It matched CPI until the last 5 years and is getting worse. Will consumers start to revolt? Source: JPAM, RBC
🤯 The Hidden Vulnerability Powering America: 20% of US Electricity is on Borrowed Time.
Did you know Nuclear energy generates 20% of all US electricity? That's our clean, reliable base load. But here’s the terrifying truth: 🇺🇸 The US once supplied nearly all its own Uranium fuel. TODAY: The US imports nearly 100% of the uranium we use. Let that sink in. One-fifth of US power generation is entirely dependent on foreign governments. In a world defined by geopolitical turbulence and supply chain risk, this isn't just an economic issue—it's a massive national security risk. The Mandate is Clear: The US must shift from relying on external sourcing to securing a resilient, domestic nuclear fuel cycle. Self-sufficiency is no longer optional; it’s paramount for energy independence and long-term stability. Source: Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance
J-C Parets: When we talk about healthy sector rotation, this is exactly what that means.
High Beta is making new all-time highs, AND it's making new all-time highs relative to Low Volatility. That's not weak breadth. That's not deterioration. That's called a raging bull market.
Lots of people are going on about cheap electricity in China and how this will allow it to win the AI race with the US.
Here's the thing about that electricity: it's from burning fossil fuels like coal - see chart below courtesy of Robin Brooks. Note however that China has massive plans to progressively replace fossil fuels by renewables and nuclear.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa just made a case for energy stocks, which have been quietly inching higher.
Here's his view: ▪️Positioning remains deeply bearish. ▪️U.S. oil and gas rigs are contracting meaningfully. ▪️Oil is trading near one of the cheapest levels in history relative to the money supply. ▪️Energy’s weight in the S&P 500 is hovering near record lows. He sees energy equities as one of the most fundamentally attractive corners of the market right now. Your thoughts? Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, Nvidia is now valued at nearly three times the entire energy sector.
Almost three times. And no, it doesn’t generate more profit than energy companies in the S&P 500. In fact, the combined free cash flow of this sector over the last year is about 20% higher than Nvidia’s. Tech innovation is incredible, but let’s not forget that something still has to power it. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
And the winner of the power demand is .... Coal !
Source: Bloomberg, @AzizSapphire
You can't print energy...
zerohedge: "The money is not the problem: AI is the new global arms race, and Capex will eventually be funded by governments (US and China). If you want to know why gold/silver/bitcoin is soaring, it's the "debasement" to fund the AI arms race. But you can't print energy".
