Syz the moment

Russian refinery throughput fell to just 3.8 million barrels per day in June, down 1.5 million bpd from the start of 2026. For comparison, refinery runs during 2023–2025 were consistently around 5.0–5.7 million bpd at this point in the year. Then came April 2026. Throughput collapsed—and has yet to recover. The key driver? Ukrainian drone strikes appear to have inflicted more immediate damage on Russia's refining capacity than years of Western sanctions. The impact extends far beyond Russia. With fewer Russian refined products reaching global markets, diesel and other fuel supplies have tightened, helping drive crack spreads sharply higher. Sometimes the clearest signal isn't the price of crude—it's what refiners can no longer produce. Source: Jack Prandelli on X

The country that was once the world's largest sovereign buyer has now sold over $4bn worth of its reserves this year. Its holdings are now at the lowest level since the day it invaded Ukraine. The reason: energy revenues are not covering the war's costs, and Russia is looking to plug the budget gap. The irony is that it's doing this at record gold prices. The only silver lining for Moscow is that it picked a good time to sell. Source: Bank of Russia, Bloomberg

Gross income from seaborne crude exports surged to $2.46 billion for the week ending March 22, the highest since March 2022. The 4-week average is up to $1.71 billion per week, up from $900 million in January. This comes as the value of Russian crude exports has DOUBLED over the last 3 weeks, rising from an average of $135 million per day in January to $270 million per day now. The surge is being driven by soaring global oil prices and a US tariff waiver allowing buyers to purchase Russian crude loaded before March 12, boosting sales to India significantly. Years of Western sanctions pressure have been undone in a matter of weeks. Source: Global Markets Investors, Bloomberg

Under one decree, carrying ruble cash across the border of Russia to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will be prohibited in the amount equivalent to more than $100,000 at the exchange rate of the Bank of Russia from April 1, with certain exceptions. The other decree bans the export of gold bars weighing more than 100 grams from Russia starting May 1. It includes some exceptions and does not apply to commercial banks. Both decrees were published on the government portal. Source: www.aa.com.tr, Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy

Russian Ruble is the best performing currency this year, up 42% against the U.S. Dollar Source: Barchart, BofA

It has been 3 years now. Will the government do something about it? Source: Robin Brooks

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And their banks are always fast to adjust to the new paradigm...