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29 Apr 2024

European banks are apparently doing brilliant business in Russia…

In 2023, they paid 4 times more taxes to the Russian state than they did before the war in Ukraine... According to the FT, Deutsche Bank has increased its profits in Russia from €26mln before the war to €40mln in 2023, while Commerzbank has more than tripled its profits to €51mln. The German state holds a 15.8% stake in Commerzbank. Italian and Austrian banks are doing a killing as well… Western lenders have benefited from the imposition of sanctions on most of the Russian financial sector, which has denied access to the Swift international interbank payment system. That made international banks a financial lifeline between Moscow and the West. Source: FT, HolgerZ

24 Apr 2024

The US is pushing through another big military aid package for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Germany has massive INDIRECT EXPORTS to Russia - see charts below. What are US taxpayers supposed to think when they see this? Source: Robin Brooks

11 Dec 2023

Russia replaced oil exports to the EU with exports to India and China

Source: FT

26 Oct 2023

According to RT, Russia has conducted a major exercise aimed at testing its strategic nuclear forces, the Kremlin said on Wednesday

The drills focused on the simulated delivery of ‘a massive nuclear strike by the strategic offensive-oriented forces in response to a nuclear strike by a simulated enemy’. Note that gold and bitcoin both jumped on the news.

6 Oct 2023

Robin Brooks tweet: "In the first 8 months of 2023, German exports to Kyrgyzstan were up 1400% from the same period in 2019

A lot of these goods - mostly cars and car parts - never ends up in Kyrgyzstan, but go directly or indirectly to Russia"

28 Sep 2023

Oil is up 30% this quarter but is there more to come?

As tweeted by The Kobeissi Letter, Russia and 3OPEC are now cutting a massive 4 million barrels per day of crude oil production. This is the highest level of production cuts outside of recessions over the last two decades. As Saudi Arabia and Russia extend production cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day, supply is going to remain limited for a while. OPEC has proven multiple times over the last three years that they are committed to higher oil prices. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, JP Morgan

21 Sep 2023

Oil, diesel crack sread soar after Russia bans diesel, gasoline exports

With Diesel prices already soaring, recently sending the diesel crack to 2023 highs and assuring that refiners have another blowout quarter, Russia just handed a gift to the Exxons of the world when it "temporarily banned" exports of the diesel in a bid to stabilize domestic supplies, adding pressure on already tight global fuel markets. “Temporary restrictions will help saturate the fuel market, that in turn will reduce prices for consumers” in Russia, the government’s press office said on its website. The "temporary" ban, which also applies to gasoline, comes into force today, Sept. 21, and doesn’t have the final date, according to the government decree, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Source:, Bloomberg

15 Aug 2023

Russia’s central bank raises its key interest rate to 12% from 8.5% at an emergency meeting called after the Ruble crashed

The Ruble is recovering somewhat after its collapse, and now costs more than a penny again. Trades at 98 per Dollar. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

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