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JUST IN : UK'S GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING RAISING CAPITAL GAINS TAX TO AS HIGH AS 39% PER THE GUARDIAN
Source: @gurgavin
India‘s economy is overtaking UK, the former colonial power.
And this is most likely just a start. Source: The Economist, Michel A.Arouet
Britain wakes up to a new party in power after 14 years of Conservative rule.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is headed for a huge majority in the House of Commons after Rishi Sunak conceded defeat in the UK general election. With the final results still streaming in, a national exit poll suggests Starmer will become prime minister more than 400 of 650 Commons seats, with the Tories holding most likely around 110 seats, the party’s worst result in its 190-year history. Sunak, who won his seat of Richmond and Northallerton, said he took “responsibility for the loss”. A victorious Starmer had earlier declared: “The change begins right here. It’s now time for us to deliver.” Source: FT, Bloomberg
UK Yields Extend Divergence from US Yields Post-BOE Meeting 📊
The Bank of England's today meeting took a more dovish turn than anticipated. Despite holding key rates steady at 5.25%, not a single BOE member voted for a hike for the first time since September 2021. Market sentiment is swiftly adjusting, with expectations shifting from a previously anticipated rate cut in August to now eyeing possibilities in June (70% chance) and even May (15% chance). The news triggered a significant rally in UK government bonds, driving the differential between 2-year UK and US yields to its lowest level in a year! This divergence underscores the evolving dynamics in global markets. Following the surprising interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank, central banks worldwide appear to be reassessing their strategies. Source: Bloomberg
📉 UK Inflation Remains Stable, Easing Pressure on BoE!
UK inflation remained weaker than anticipated in January, holding steady at 4% year-on-year, defying forecasts of a rise to 4.1%. This unexpected outcome suggests reduced pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) from underlying price increases. Notably, services inflation reached 6.5%, slightly below the BoE's projections. Despite the stable headline rates, the BoE remains cautious amidst labor market tightness and signs of economic recovery. As a result, traders have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, now anticipating two cuts for the year, with the first expected in September. However, amidst this cautious sentiment, the UK bond market could emerge as an attractive opportunity. Expected decreases in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) signal potential inflationary relief, supporting the case for Bank of England rate cuts by mid-2024. Furthermore, appealing yields following recent market pullbacks add to the attractiveness of the UK bond market as an investment avenue. It's worth noting that the market does not anticipate a rate cut until the first half of 2024, providing investors with ample time to position themselves strategically. #UKInflation #BankOfEngland #InvestmentOpportunity #BondMarket #EconomicOutlook
UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly, Tempering Talk of Rate Cuts
UK inflation disappoints at both the headline and core levels: Headline inflation rose to 4.0% in December, above the consensus forecast looking for it to fall from 3.9% to 3.8%. Core inflation, which was also expected to fall, remained unchanged at 5.1%. Source: Bloomberg
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