The US Dollar decline has been truly remarkable:
The Bloomberg US Dollar Index just dropped to its lowest level since mid-2023. The dollar has fallen over 8% in 2025 and erased nearly all of its gains from the past year. This comes as foreigners are bringing money back home... Source: Global Markets, Bloomberg
The US dollar is on track for its worst performance in three decades
Resource stocks, emerging and other developed markets, and foreign currencies are beginning to perform well. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg
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Hong Kong Dollar Funding Cost plunges by largest amount since the Global Financial Crisis Source: Bloomberg, Barchart
Another enormous climb in the Taiwanese dollar today, up almost 8% over the last two sessions against the USD, by far the biggest two-day increase on record.
▶️ So what's going on? The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) has been surging due to a combination of economic, trade, and market factors in 2025: ✔️ Easing Trade Tensions: Speculation about reduced U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly following indications that China is open to trade talks with the U.S., has boosted optimism for Taiwan’s export-driven economy. ✔️ Strong Economic Growth: Taiwan’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 9.67% in Q1 2025, with annual growth of 5.37%, surpassing forecasts. A ✔️ Tech Sector Strength: Strong U.S. tech earnings, particularly from companies like Microsoft and Meta, have signaled sustained demand for AI and semiconductors, where Taiwan plays a critical role through companies like TSMC. This has driven foreign capital inflows and supported TWD appreciation.
A currency's reserve status should not be taken for granted.
Just look at what happened to the pound... Source: Augur Infinity
The Market Ear
EURUSD longer term chart right at the big negative trend line. The 200 weekly moving average is sloping negatively still...and the FX pair has done nothing since 2015. FX is a relative game, but getting excited about the euro here looks like a late short term trade
The breaking of this relationship is a measure of stress in markets ...
It continues to widen, i.e higher rates are not supporting the dollar right now. Does it mean they might have to go a lot higher to stop the dollar from falling??? Source: Bianco Research
Dollar Crashes On Powell Removal Speculation, Gold Soars To All Time High And Bitcoin Suddenly Spikes
The result is that while bitcoin had generally tracked the DXY Dollar index lower for much of 2025, the last few weeks - and certainly Sunday night - have seen a very tangible snap in this relationship. Source: zerohedge, Bloomberg
