SNB cut rates against market expectations
Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate by 25 BPS to 1.50%. USDCHF and EURCHF both jumped by more than one figure to 0.8970 and 0.9780 respectively. Market was only pricing in a 35% probability of this cut.
FED holds benchmark rate, May cut remains unlikely
The US Federal reserve holds benchmark rate in 5.25-5.5% target range. Jerome Powell prepared remarks and Q&A answers were more dovish than during the January meeting. FOMC median forecast remains at 75 BPS rate cuts for 2024, but the forecast increased from 3.6% to 3.9% in 2025.
Gold reacted to Powell's dovish tone by jumping to a new record high and breaking the 2200 level.
Source: Bloomberg
The Egyptian Pound is down 37% against the USD after switching to a flexible exchange rate
Source: Barchart
Pound Bulls Stand Their Ground
source: bloomberg
Egypt: The currency is in free-fall
Black market rate: 1 dollar = 70 pounds Official rate: 1 dollar = 30.9 pounds The pounds has weakened by nearly 24% in the market in 2024. Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris criticized delays in enacting a long-awaited devaluation of the pound, suggesting authorities match the spiraling black market rate to end the nation’s chronic foreign-currency shortage. Postponing reforms is “a disaster that will increase the extent of the critical situation we are in,” Sawiris said in an Arabic-language post on social media platform X. Egypt’s pound has plunged on the parallel market to 68-70 per dollar in recent days, leaving it more than 50% weaker than the official rate of about 30.9. Source: Bloomberg, Ziad M Daoud
🇯🇵 Hedge Funds, Asset Managers Take Opposite Yen Bets Amid BOJ Talk - Bloomberg, C.Barraud
Hedge funds and asset managers were split on their yen views as the Bank of Japan laid the ground for an end to its negative-rate policy. Leveraged funds cut net yen shorts to the lowest level since February 2023 in the seven days ended Jan. 23 when BOJ announced its last policy decision, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In contrast, asset managers, such as pension funds and insurance companies, boosted net shorts by the most since May when the investors switched to shorts from longs.
One of the most important chart of 2023
Source: FT
During 25 years before joining the Euro Italian Lira lost 83% against Deutsche Mark. Last 25 years they have been pegged. How much value would the Lira have lost against Deutsche Mark without the peg?
Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
