Private Credit Faces Early-Year Withdrawal Pressure
In Q1, wealthy investors requested over $10B from major private credit funds. Blackstone, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley are limiting withdrawals to ~70%. Apollo, Ares, and Goldman Sachs will report soon. Though small relative to $1.5T in direct lending, private credit’s fast growth and $9T U.S. retirement exposure mean liquidity strains could test the model’s foundations. Temporary squeeze or early warning? Source: FT
With buybacks stepping away, downside moves become more exposed.
McCullen: "We are expecting the next blackout window to begin this week ~3/18, estimating ~45% of the S&P 500 to be in blackout by that point, assuming entry 6 weeks prior to earnings ... We expect blackout to run through the end of April." Source: TME
Geopolitics is now the biggest tail risk according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey
Source: BofA, TME
UBS says private credit defaults could hit 15%.
That's 3x the peak bank loan default rate in 2008. Source: Leadlag report, Michel Gayed
The Global Equity market is valued at $154 trillion as of 2025 and here's the detailed breakdown.
44% of the global share is owned by USA, while the rest of the world combined holds 56%. China and the European Union (EU) hold similar stakes at about 9.6% each. India is the third largest country, representing 6.9% of the global equity markets, followed by Japan at 4.9%. A 10-year comparison (2015 vs 2025): Interestingly, China, EU, Hong Kong, Japan and UK have each seen a decline from their share in 2015. On the other hand, India and USA have both witnessed an increase in their share. Source: Stocks World @anandchokshi19
Goldman Sachs on stocks
Goldman Sachs on stocks: "Overall, equities [aka stocks] face rising correction risk; valuations are stretched, macro conditions are deteriorating at the margin and cracks are appearing across growth, inflation, credit and labour markets. But strong fundamentals argue against a bear market, reinforcing the view that weakness should be temporary as the medium-term backdrop is more constructive: earnings remain resilient, balance sheets are solid and history suggests that geopolitical shocks often present opportunity rather than lasting damage." Source: Brian Sozzi
The US private credit exit wave is picking up speed
Cliffwater’s $33B flagship fund capped redemptions at 7% after investors requested 14%—a record, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley limited withdrawals to 5% from its North Haven Private Income Fund, and BlackRock recently imposed limits at 9.3%. Pressure spreads as JPMorgan marks down software-linked loans and tightens lending to private credit firms due to concerns over credit quality, loan valuations, and AI disruption. Public BDCs are also under stress: FS KKR Capital ($FSK) saw its NAV premium collapse over 40 points, and Hercules Capital ($HTGC) dropped roughly 30 points. Investors seek liquidity, but options are shrinking. The key question: when will the broader market take notice? Source: FT, Global Markets Investor
Financial stocks this year
- Blue Owl: -44% - Blackstone: -35% - Wells Fargo: -21% - Morgan Stanley: -15% - BlackRock: -15% - Goldman Sachs: -14% - JPMorgan: -13% $OWL $BX $WFC $MS $BLK $GS $JPM Source: Phil Rosen @philrosenn
