Nomura's McElligott says there's a "new 60/40":
"Government bonds no longer work as your Risk-Asset / Long Asset Beta Hedge in a world of “Sticky Higher Inflation”... “The New 60/40” is a 50/50 Equities Barbell Long between AI Semis and Energy…. where Energy insulates on the Global “Supply Shock” and “Molecule Shortage” as the risk-off vehicle in the current backdrop, against the risk-on component being a world where AI Hyperscalers are going from $600B of Capex in 2026 to upwards of ~$1 TRILLION in 2027 and “Chasing Compute”. Source: Neil Sethi
Factset notes that Mag-7 GAAP earnings growth for Q1 is now expected to come in at an astounding +61.0% up from 22.4% at the end of the quarter
(March 31st) with 4 of the top 5 contributors to SPX earnings growth coming from this cohort (Alphabet, NVIDIA, Amazon and Meta, the other is Micron) That said, Factset notes that the three of those who have reported though each were boosted by one-time non-cash items: "The (GAAP) EPS actual for Alphabet for Q1 2026 included a net gain of $37.7 billion primarily due to net unrealized gains on non-marketable equity securities. The (GAAP) EPS actual for Amazon.com for Q1 2026 included pre-tax gains of $16.8 billion included in non-operating income from investments in Anthropic. The (GAAP) EPS actual for Meta Platforms for Q1 2026 included an $8.03 billion income tax benefit." Source: Factset, Neil Sethi
Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A has now dumped stocks for 14 consecutive quarters, the longest selling streak in its history
Source: Barchart, FT
$440 billion wiped from semiconductor stocks in a single day after 19 straight days of gains.
The $SOX Semiconductor Index crashed 5% on Tuesday, its worst session in months and the first red day after the longest winning streak in the index's history. - $NVDA down 3.2% wiping out $200 billion. - $AVGO down 4.3% wiping out $95 billion. - $MU down 5.8% wiping out $40 billion. - $AMD down 4.8% wiping out $29 billion. - $INTC down 4.2% wiping out $7 billion. Source: Bull Theory
Tesla $TSLA is positioning itself to be the largest physical AI deployment platform by the end of this decade.
By 2031, Tesla could become a $375B revenue story where AI, robots, services, energy & Cybercab together become larger than automotive: • Automotive 40% • Cybercab 24% • Robots 16% • Energy 11% • Services 9% Source: Shay Boloor
Those that claim the US dollar dominance is at risk or in decline, due to the Iran war, are completely wrong. The US dollar is becoming even more dominant in international transiations.
The US dollar's percentage of international transactions rose to a record 51.1% in March. The world is still betting on the USA as the world reserve currency. China is not an option due to capital restrictions. Europe is in economy stagnation and decline, so the Euro currency is not really an option. The "news" media is trying to sell a narrative, but the data is clear. The US dollar still dominates trade and it is growing, not declining. Source: Wall Street Mav Bloomberg
Almost half of the semiconductor index names are showing Bubble Risk Indicator levels above 0.8, and two thirds above 0.7, according to Bank of America.
Source: Markets & Mayhem
I know that comparing market cap with country GDP does not make too much economic sense.
Source: shirish @shiri_shh on X
