In case you missed it... Some major breaking news out of China today.
People’s Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng announced a flood of support measures in a rare press conference Tuesday amid a deepening economic slump, including the biggest package yet for housing. Measures went beyond most expectations targeted at property, banks and directly, the equity market. Beijing will cut the amount of cash banks need to have on hand, known as the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR, by 50 basis points in the near term, he said. Pan also said the PBOC would cut the 7-day repo rate by 0.2 percentage points, and signaled that a 0.2-0.25% cut in the loan prime rate could follow. Stocks are flying led by brokers and property. Some other China proxies like iron ore and Aussie are also trading higher. Source: David Ingles
Gold has shown a remarkable surge, nearly quadrupling from $600 to $2,000 per ounce in just six years following the Fed's easing in 2007.
On the chart below, the green line is representing the Fed Funds rate - INVERTED, and the yellow line is depicting gold price. Additionally, the white line comparing Gold vs. S&P 500 indicates a potential turnaround after a prolonged period of underperformance. Could the recent outperformance by gold signify the start of a new trend? Source: Bloomberg, Garret Goggin
BREAKING 🚨 The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points in their first rate cut since March 2020
The long awaited "Fed pivot" has officially begun... By starting their monetarypolicy easing cycle with an aggressive 50 basis points rate cut it seems that the fed decided to focus on the labor market part of their dual mandate rather than the inflation one... Here's a summary of Fed decision: 1. Fed cuts interest rates by 50 bps for first time since 2020 2. Fed sees 2 more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024 3.Fed governor Miki Bowman dissented in favour of a smaller 25 bps cut. It's the first dissent by a *governor* since 2005. 4. Fed gained "greater confidence" that inflation is moving to 2% 5. Fed will "carefully asses incoming data" and evolve outlook 6. Fed sees 100 bps of rate cuts in 2025 and 50 bps of cuts in 2026 This is a CLEAR Fed pivot and the Fed is signaling that they believe the disinflation trend remains in place but also that they now see making unemployment their top priority as the labor market has weakened. Their decision sounds almost like a risk management one. (Initial) Market reaction >>> -> The SP500 rises to a new all time high but the equity market reaction is rather mixed so far -> Yield curve steepens with a modest yield rise on the long-end -> The dollar weakens Gold and bitcoin slightly rise
🚨WHAT? US stocks fell after a 0.50% rate cut?🚨
Markets were very mixed after the Fed 'Jumbo' reduction. Big cuts are not usually a good sign BUT... Day 1 is usually not the REAL reaction. We need to wait 2 more trading sessions to see what's really going on. Market performance today: S&P 500 -0.3% Nasdaq -0.3% Russell 2000 +0.0% Dow Jones -0.3% Bitcoin +0.1% Bank Index +0.4% VIX +4%, front month futures VIX -1% Gold -0.6% WTI Crude Oil -1.3% Source. Global Markets Investor
Regardless of what is happening in the world, or who happens to be President, the market finds a way forward.
Source: Peter Mallouk
JP Morgan now owes the MOST derivatives at $57 Trillion
Source: PHIL 4 REAL @StretchItSomeMo
⚠️GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTh FELL TO THE LOWEST SINCE THE COVID CRISIS⚠️
World consumption rose by 800,000 barrels a day in H1 2024, a 1/3 of the growth seen in H1 2023. THE LOWEST rate since demand crashed in 2020... Source: Global Markets Investor
The global bond rally has regained momentum due to econ concerns in the US and weak figures in the Eurozone.
Value of global bonds rose 0.3% this week to $69.29tn, almost a fresh ATH. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
