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Our global M2 proxy was flat last week, close to its record high level (the DXY index was flat too). The S&P 500 continues to catch up and suggests the relationship between the two is not broken.
In orange: Global M2 with an 11 weeks lead In dark blue: S&P 500 index Proprietary model developed by our Head of Fixed Income Adrien Pichoud
The US is generating almost 2/3 of OECD profits...
Warren Buffet: "Never bet against america" Source: Bloomberg
“Virtually nothing matters more to markets at present than the AI buildout. It’s such a sudden and massive stimulus for the US that it has shifted macroeconomic data. "
Columbia Business School’s Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh argues that without it, the US would be in recession. He estimates AI infrastructure investment at roughly 2.8% of GDP, larger than the railroad boom, and it’s projected to keep rising Source: Annmarie Hordern Bloomberg
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