This chart shows how markets have performed so far in September, with the Magnificent Seven currently carrying the torch.
Source: Citi Securities through RBC
Using the past seven tightening cycles as a guide, GS notes that the S&P usually struggles at the start, falling an average of 2% over the first three months.
Using the past seven tightening cycles as a guide, GS notes that the S&P usually struggles at the start, falling an average of 2% over the first three months. The pinch typically does not last long, however, with the index gaining an average of 9% over the following 12 months. The bruising exception was 2022. Ultimately, earnings growth determines the market’s trajectory, but the speed and volatility of the move in rates can heavily influence stocks along the way. Source: TME, GS
The corporate buyback blackout begins this week
Approximately 40% of S&P 500 companies are expected to enter blackout periods. This transition typically tempers one of the market’s most consistent sources of demand. Source: TME, GS
GLOBAL X CYBERSECURITY ETF JUMPS 11% IN BIGGEST GAIN ON RECORD
Pretty wild moves from cybersecurity names yesterday Source: Bloomberg, Negligible Capital
Technical warning on semiconductors
SMH is breaking below the dynamic formation. We are already well below the 100-day MA, while the 200-day MA sits considerably lower. Source: TME
Leopold Aschenbrenner bought options positions in these companies last week
Source: Stocktwits
A recent research piece by Goldman highlighted that the market might be too cautiously positioned
A recent research piece by Goldman highlighted that the market might be too cautiously positioned. Two examples: 1/ On the left: Nasdaq-100 futures shorts have risen 35% since mid-June. 2/ On the right: This quarter’s hedge fund de-grossing episode was particularly sharp. Per GS Prime Brokerage data, US Fundamental L/S gross/net leverage now stand at 207% / 49.8%, in the 20th / 6th percentiles vs. the past year. Source: GS
Junk bond spreads just dropped to 2.6%.
Investors are getting paid almost nothing extra to hold the riskiest corporate debt in America. That is near the tightest level of the entire cycle. Credit always cracks before equities. So far so good. Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®
