The S&P 500's rally has likely been driven by short covering and positioning adjustments as opposed to fresh capital, according to LPL Financial.
"Trading volume has been notably light, running below its year‑to‑date average for each of the past five sessions despite the advance in headline indices," Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at the wealth management firm, wrote in a note on Thursday. "This suggests the move higher is being propelled more by short covering and forced positioning adjustments than by fresh capital being put to work." Source: Neil Sethi
The cheapest bubble ever? Nasdaq trades at 22x next 12M earnings, which below 5Y and 10Y average.
Bill Ackman believes "some of the best businesses in the world have become available at some of the lowest valuations in their history." Some examples: 1. $META – Meta Platforms - FWD P/E: 22x - Revenue: +30% YoY 2. $AMZN - Amazon Inc. - EV/EBITDA: 16x - Revenue: +14% YoY 3. $V - Visa Inc. - FWD P/E: 23x - Revenue: +15% YoY 4. $MSFT - Microsoft Inc. - FWD P/E: 22x - Revenue: +17% YoY 5. $UBER - Uber Technologies - P/FCF: 16x - Revenue: +20% YoY (These are NOT investment recommendations) Source: Bloomberg, Citadel,
Monster squeeze won't stop: most shorted stocks up 24% since March 30
Source: zerohedge
Hedge funds started off April with a strong recovery following March’s losses
-Point72 gained 2.4% through April 9, bringing YTD gains to 6.3% -Millenium gained 2.3% through April 10, bringing YTD gains to 3.2% -Jain Global gained 2.4%, through April 10, down 2.7% YTD -Verition gained 2.4% through April 10 Source: Negligible Capital
This could be among the reasons the market rallied yesterday
NEW YORK TIMES: Iran offered to suspend their nuclear enrichment program for 5 years. JD Vance asked for 20. While Trump rejected the 5 year offer, a second round of talks are likely, potentially in Pakistan again, by the end of this week. ⚠️ Why is this BULLISH? The fact that Iran even offered a 5-year suspension means they are WILLING to talk. The US obviously wants more years, but all the market cares about is that a deal is reached. Maybe we settle at 10 years, maybe 20. The point is…this might now become a question of WHEN a deal is reached vs. IF it is reached. Seems like that’s what the market priced in yesterday as well as we went up 1% and continued the best stretch of momentum since October 2025. Source: amitisinvesting
The S&P 500 was up for the seventh day in a row today - its longest win streak since Oct 2025...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
$SPX sp500 is back inside the range, trading roughly in the middle. Note the 200 day MA is right here.
Source: TME
Something weird took place the last week of March.
"Our retail cash platform finished last week net selling, the first such week since November 2025 ... retail has moved away from one-way buying behavior." (Citadel)
