The CDS eruption continues: Broadcom CDS up 5bps to a new all time high, NVDA also at record wide every single day now.
Source: zerohedge
Markets are starting to show how the Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global oil flows.
The key signal is not just fewer barrels moving through the region. It is where those barrels are now showing up. Ports like Fujairah and Sohar, both located outside the Strait, are seeing a surge in crude departures. That suggests they are increasingly acting as bypass routes, transshipment points, and ship-to-ship transfer hubs for oil that would normally have taken a more direct path through Hormuz. Importantly, this does not mean the UAE or Oman suddenly produced far more oil. It may also hint at rising “dark” vessel activity. When AIS signals are limited or interrupted, voyage tracking becomes harder, and cargoes can effectively “reappear” outside Hormuz. So the disruption is no longer visible only in oil prices and tanker rates. It is now visible in the geography — and the opacity — of the physical oil market itself. Source: Michael McDonough DST
Nomura has a chip shortage index
Source: Nomura
This is something you don't see every day: a severe negative correlation between High Beta stocks and Low Volatility stocks.
At -0.52, the 45-day correlation between these groups is the lowest on record. Source: Jeff Weniger
As highlighted by GS, investors are quietly rotating capital towards the “unloved” corners of the market: hard-asset exposure and ex-AI equity trades.
The AI trade is not dead - but its composition, its momentum profile, and its margin of safety are all being rewritten in real time. The good news: there are plenty ways to diversify. As shown on the chart below, the broader market ex AI (SPXXAI) is now very negatively correlated with AI, making a strong case for ‘broadening’ exposure. Source: zerohedge, GS
Nvidia, $NVDA, reports Wednesday, with EPS expected to nearly double YoY on relentless AI infrastructure demand
Source: Hedgeye Bloomberg
During midterm election years, September has historically been the S&P 500’s worst month.
October and November tell a very different story. Source: TrendSpider
Meanwhile…..
Agricultural commodities are now at their highest level in a decade. Yet another unintended consequence of higher energy prices. Watch the Fed be forced to walk back its hawkish stance even as inflation continues to creep higher. Source: Tavi Costa
