At 858 days since ChatGPT's release, the Nasdaq is currently up 129%.
858 days after Netscape's release, the Nasdaq was up 155%. "History doesn’t repeat itself, but it still rhymes. If this chart has any merit we might only be in the middle innings of this buildout." - Bespoke Source: Negligible Capital
Anthropic is releasing 10 new agent templates for financial services
Source: Negligible Capital
⚠️ The AI gold rush has a hidden cost… and Big Tech is footing the bill.
Here’s the reality no one wants to say out loud: • Big Tech free cash flow peaked at ~$300B in 2024 • By 2026… it’s heading toward ZERO Why? Because AI isn’t just innovation… it’s a capital black hole. → ~$715B in capex (2026) → +70% YoY increase → Nearly ALL cash flow consumed Margins are collapsing fast: • Microsoft → ~16% • Meta → ~3% • Alphabet → ~0% • Amazon → ~-2% So what’s happening behind the scenes? They’re borrowing. Aggressively. • ~$175B in new debt expected in 2026 • Buybacks slowing across the board • Key equity support disappearing Translation: The AI boom isn’t being funded by profits… It’s being funded by leverage. And that changes everything. Less cash flow + more debt + fewer buybacks = ⚠️ Fragile market structure The uncomfortable truth: AI may define the future… But it’s draining the present. And the bill is just getting started. Source: Global Markets Investor, JPM, Bloomberg
Google Cloud has far outpaced AWS and Azure in terms of YoY Revenue growth.
This is a great chart from MS. Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA
"AI is a fad, they are spending all this money to build data centers with no revenue models. It's all going bust."
Source: Lance Roberts, The Daily Shot, A16Z
Anthropic Triples Revenue Forecast in Four Years
Source: Hedgeye
⚠️ CHINA JUST MADE IT ILLEGAL TO FIRE EMPLOYEES AND REPLACE THEM WITH AI.
China’s courts have ruled that companies cannot fire or penalize employees simply because AI can replace their work. In two cases, employers who cut pay or terminated workers due to AI adoption were found to have acted illegally. The courts stated AI adoption is a voluntary business choice, so companies must retrain, reassign, or support workers instead of shifting the burden onto them. This contrasts with global trends, where over 1.5 million jobs have been cut since 2020, many due to AI. Major firms like Amazon, Block, and Meta have reduced staff to fund AI investments. Studies warn AI could replace significant portions of the workforce, reducing consumer spending. Economists highlight a risk: widespread layoffs shrink demand, creating a self-destructive cycle where productivity rises but consumers lack income. China’s approach aims to prevent this by protecting workers’ earnings and sustaining economic demand.
"We are going to need a bigger boat..." ($NVDA...)
The biggest US tech firms now plan to spend as much as $725 billion this year on capital expenditures, primarily on AI data center equipment. Morgan Stanley now sees hyperscaler capex approaching $800B / $1.1 trillion in 2026 / 2027 (versus $765B / $950B) prior. That means we will also to need a lot of energy and raw materials for that !!! Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley
