Will it ever happen? OpenAI does not appear to have sufficient liquidity, and even if it did, current market pressures may lead it to prioritize operational stability rather than aggressive growth
Source: Markets & Mayhem
Rate of adoption of AI
Source: NYT thru unusual_whales
After Google, now Amazon
*AMAZON SAYS NEW CHIPS ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE THAN NVIDIA'S Source: ©️redit From Ⓜ️acro to Ⓜ️icro @Credit_Junk Bloomberg
🚨 CODE RED at OpenAI! Sam Altman sounds the alarm! 🚨
The AI race just got a lot hotter, and the early leader is feeling the heat. 🔥 OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has declared a "code red" to completely refocus the company's efforts on its flagship product, ChatGPT. Here's the critical breakdown you need to know: The Threat: Rivals like Google (Gemini 3) and Anthropic (Opus 4.5) have recently leapfrogged OpenAI's GPT-5 on key industry benchmark tests. The lead is shrinking FAST. The Fix: A "surge" effort is underway to significantly improve speed, reliability, and personalization of ChatGPT. The Sacrifice: OpenAI is delaying other ambitious projects—like AI agents for shopping/health, advertising products, and personalized news (Pulse)—to dedicate resources to the core chatbot. The Stakes: This is a "critical time" for the $500bn start-up, grappling with intense competition, soaring data center costs, and the non-stop battle for top AI talent. Stats That Matter: ChatGPT still has a dominant market share with over 800 million weekly users. BUT, users are now spending more time chatting with Google's Gemini than with ChatGPT (per Similarweb data). ChatGPT already accounts for roughly 10% of global search activity and is growing quickly. The Bottom Line: The AI frontier is moving at warp speed. As Google integrates its powerful, bespoke-chip-trained Gemini 3 models immediately, OpenAI is forced to pause future innovations to defend its core product. The fight for the AI crown is officially on! Who do you think wins this high-stakes race? 👇 Source: FT
This is why OpenAI is in a Code Red.
In the 2 weeks since the Gemini launch, ChatGPT unique daily active users (7-day average) are down -6%. Source: Deedy @deedydas
$IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data center
So the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest” Source: Wall St Engine
HSBC forecasts that OpenAI is going to have nearly a half trillion in operating losses until 2030.
https://lnkd.in/eMkGJKyi Source: Jack Farley @JackFarley96, FT
A great FT article on how OpenAI partners amassed $100bn debt pile to fund its ambitions
A great FT article on how OpenAI partners amassed $100bn debt pile to fund its ambitions.
