AI Memory Stocks Are Crushing the Market
The bottleneck is spreading across DRAM, NAND, SSD controllers, HDDs, advanced packaging, process control, server racks, and wafer fab equipment. Every layer of the stack is being repriced as AI workloads demand more bandwidth, more capacity, and faster data movement. Source: Sergey
This is such an important chart.
Where the cost of labor is cheaper, it doesn't make much sense yet to use AI. AI can probably augment some of the work, but replacing the human is just not cost effective. But this will probably not be the case forever. The simpler tasks will become cost effective from an AI perspective at some point, as AI models become more efficient. Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA
Wall Street projects hyperscalers’ free cash flow to fall by over 70% from its peak by the end of 2026, even as earnings keep climbing
Source: Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg
Goldman: On the back of 3 large data center and hyperscaler transactions over the past week+ April IG supply finished at $205 bn, nearly doubling the informal street estimate (~$110bn).
This took IG supply over the past 12mo to new highs at ~$2trn (~20% of outstanding IG bonds), pari with peak Covid. Source: Neil Sethi
At 858 days since ChatGPT's release, the Nasdaq is currently up 129%.
858 days after Netscape's release, the Nasdaq was up 155%. "History doesn’t repeat itself, but it still rhymes. If this chart has any merit we might only be in the middle innings of this buildout." - Bespoke Source: Negligible Capital
Anthropic is releasing 10 new agent templates for financial services
Source: Negligible Capital
⚠️ The AI gold rush has a hidden cost… and Big Tech is footing the bill.
Here’s the reality no one wants to say out loud: • Big Tech free cash flow peaked at ~$300B in 2024 • By 2026… it’s heading toward ZERO Why? Because AI isn’t just innovation… it’s a capital black hole. → ~$715B in capex (2026) → +70% YoY increase → Nearly ALL cash flow consumed Margins are collapsing fast: • Microsoft → ~16% • Meta → ~3% • Alphabet → ~0% • Amazon → ~-2% So what’s happening behind the scenes? They’re borrowing. Aggressively. • ~$175B in new debt expected in 2026 • Buybacks slowing across the board • Key equity support disappearing Translation: The AI boom isn’t being funded by profits… It’s being funded by leverage. And that changes everything. Less cash flow + more debt + fewer buybacks = ⚠️ Fragile market structure The uncomfortable truth: AI may define the future… But it’s draining the present. And the bill is just getting started. Source: Global Markets Investor, JPM, Bloomberg
Google Cloud has far outpaced AWS and Azure in terms of YoY Revenue growth.
This is a great chart from MS. Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA
