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17 Apr 2024

BREAKING >>> Fed Chair Powell says there has been a ‘lack of further progress’ this year on inflation

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S COMMENTS (4/16/24): 1. Recent data "shows lack of further progress on inflation" 2. Inflation has "introduced new uncertainty" on whether the Fed can cut rates later this year 3. Fed can maintain higher rates for "as long as needed" 4. Recent data has not given greater confidence on inflation 5. Restrictive Fed policy needs more time to work 6. It will likely take longer to "regain confidence" on inflation Source: CNBC, The Kobeissi Letter, Trend Spider

16 Apr 2024

Longer-term inflation expectations are rising again.

The market's implied rate of inflation over the next five years has risen to the highest level in more than a year, at 2.6%, according to breakeven rates. Source: Bloomberg, Lisa Abramowitz

15 Apr 2024

Yes, this week was painful for stocks.

But putting things into perspective, equities have been more resilient to higher rates recently versus previous periods of rising rates. Source: Edward Jones

10 Apr 2024

JUST IN: Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points as soon as June and 150 points by the end of this year, says State Street in call against Wall Street consensus

Source: Bloomberg, radar

9 Apr 2024

From expecting 6 Fed rate cuts to just two in 2024 😉

Source: Markets & Mayhem

9 Apr 2024

Jamie Dimon's 61 page annual shareholder letter is finally out for FY2023!

-A rate spike is very possible with stickier inflation. Interest rates could soar to 8% -Says Federal deficit is a real issue hurting business confidence (govt spending could keep rates high) -US economy resilient so far with consumer spending, but the economy has also been fueled by government deficit spending and past stimulus -Market is pricing in 70-80% chance of a soft landing/no landing...Dimon thinks that is too high -Inflation resurgence, political polarization are risks for this year (Ukraine, Middle East, China) - AI may be as impactful on humanity as the printing press Source: SpecialSitsNews, Barchart

8 Apr 2024

It's the liquidity, stupid! Yellen's stealth QE overpowering Powell's QT.

This probably helps risk assets performing well despite high interest rates and qt (Chart via SRP thru HolgerZ)

26 Mar 2024

Central banks cut rates at the fastest pace since heading into the pandemic.

Source: BofA, The Daily Shot

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