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26 Mar 2024

BREAKING: US new home prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008, according to Reventure.

New home prices peaked in late-2022 at $497,000 and have fallen to $401,000 as of the latest data. In the financial crisis, new home prices dropped by 23% from 2007-2010, according to Reventure. US Home prices are down roughly the same amount in just 1.5 years, or half the amount of time. Still, new home prices are ~20% above pre-pandemic levels and existing home supply is near record lows. Is the hashtag#us housing market beginning to crack? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Re-venture

22 Mar 2024

China scrutinizes PwC role in $78 billion Evergrande fraud case

Chinese authorities are examining the role of PWC in China Evergrande Group’s accounting practices after the developer was accused of a $78 billion fraud, ramping up pressure on the global accounting giant that audited a slew of developers before the sector’s meltdown.

Source: Bloomberg

12 Mar 2024

Major U.S. Banks, by Commercial Real Estate Exposure

This graphic shows the 20 largest U.S. banks by assets, and their exposure to commercial real estate as a percentage of total loans. source : visualcapitalist

23 Feb 2024

House prices adjusted for inflation since 1975.

The charts for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK look like a s**tcoin during a pump. The Japanese real estate bubble of the 1990s is barely visible as a comparison... Source: Bloomberg, MacroAlf

19 Feb 2024

Median home prices are now contracting at levels NEVER seen in 60 years

Source: Win Smart

16 Feb 2024

What is the exposure of German banks to us commercial real estate?

According to Moody's, Aareal Bank & Deutsche Pfandbriefbank have the largest exposure compared w/their capital levels. The shares of Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, which is the most shorted in Germany, have recently lost a quarter of their value. In case of Deutsche Bank, there is a gap between banks' exposure to US specialized lending and exposure to banks' US CRE book as DB engages to a material extent in other asset-based or project lending that would also qualify as specialised lending, according to Moody's. Source: Dekabank, HolgerZ

16 Feb 2024

From The Markets article on US banks’ portfolios of commercial real estate:

“Bloomberg’s review found 22 banks with $10 billion to $100 billion of assets hold commercial property loans three times greater than their capital. Half of those firms had growth rates surpassing the thresholds laid out by regulators. The tally was even higher among banks with less than $10 billion of assets: 47 had outsize portfolios, of which 13 had swelled rapidly. The analysis excludes loans for nonresidential buildings that are occupied by their owners.” Source: Bloomberg

13 Feb 2024

On CRE

Source: Bloomberg

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