Syz the moment

Source: NDR, Finom Group @GroupFinom

Then the attacks resumed. Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Qatar and Oman tell the story: ▪️ Jan–Feb: 18.9 million barrels/day ▪️ May trough: 6.5 million — down 66% ▪️ September: 14.7 million ▪️ October so far: 17.3 million — 91% of pre-war levels The recovery relied on ingenuity: Saudi pipelines diverted crude to the Red Sea, while shuttle tankers carried barrels through Hormuz to supertankers waiting outside. But the cumulative damage remains enormous: 1.7 billion fewer barrels exported between March and September than at the pre-war pace. And October’s rebound is fragile. ⚠️ The figures cover only the first two weeks. Six ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October. More than 10 empty supertankers have turned back near Fujairah. Export routes can adapt. A sustained recovery still requires security. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Gulf News

➡️ Saudi-backed forces launch major counteroffensive with roughly 100 Saudi fighter jets supporting attacks along the Red Sea coast. ➡️Mocha's status remains disputed: Government forces claim to have retaken the strategic port, while Houthis deny the loss. ➡️Houthis announce major missile & drone attack on Saudi territory, including against international airport in Riyadh. ➡️Houthi fighters reportedly seize homes of senior government figures, including Parliament Speaker Sultan al-Barakani's mansion. ➡️Bab el-Mandeb is increasingly at risk, raising concerns for Red Sea shipping and the wider Suez trade route. Source : Summary by zerohedge

Brent continues to carry a substantial geopolitical premium, but the physical shortage is already shrinking. Goldman estimates that the global oil deficit has narrowed from roughly 7mb/d near the start of the war in March to approximately 1mb/d in Q3. Gulf production has partially recovered, demand has weakened and supply outside the region has risen faster than expected. Oil does not need the conflict to end. It needs the disruption to stop getting worse. Source: GS / TME

Gulf states postponed a planned meeting with Iran in Oman aimed at managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, due to lack of consensus among GCC members. The meeting would have been the first GCC-Iran ministerial gathering in nearly two years, focused on a Tehran-Muscat deal to temporarily manage traffic through the strait, which Iran has restricted since the US-Israel war against it began in February. Oman's foreign minister announced the postponement without details, citing commitment to dialogue. Bahrain, hit hard by Iranian retaliatory strikes and holding the GCC presidency, had already said it would skip the meeting. The setback comes as Saudi Arabia faces a separate crisis: a Thursday drone attack, launched from Iraq where Iranian-backed militias operate, forced closure of a pipeline carrying oil from its eastern fields to the west coast. That pipeline has become critical for Saudi exports since Hormuz traffic was disrupted. Source : FT

“A large bank” will be sanctioned by the U.S. next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday, without naming the financial institution nor the country. The announcement comes after Trump’s administration sanctioned the Dubai branches of the second largest bank in Egypt (Banque Misr) which is believed to have given Iranians $1.8 billion of funds. Turkey’s largest bank “that had been giving to the Iranians” will also be closed, according to Bessent. Source: CNBC

Diesel at $240 a barrel. Gasoline at $4.10 a gallon. The US 10-year yield at 4.75%. As the economic pain mounts, the President will face growing pressure to do—or say—whatever it takes to bring oil prices down. Source: Brad Moseley

Source: Bloomberg Economics