Update (7/12 PM): The tape keeps thinning
7 commercial crossings in the last 24h (5 E→W / 2 W→E), down from 11 yesterday and barely ~6% of the Jan–Feb run-rate. Brent's grinding higher, ~$78.79 and climbing as the closure prices in. Flow down, crude up Source: @TheTerminal Michael McDonough
Amid the sharp military escalation, odds of a full Iran blockade by July 13 jumped 50% since the last update 4 days ago
Source: zerohedge, Polymarket
BREAKING: President Trump just ordered to immediately halt all trade with Spain.
Trump made the remarks during a NATO meeting while standing next to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Trump's core complaint is that Spain refuses to pay its NATO defense spending commitments. While Germany, France, the UK, and Italy have all been contributing, Spain has openly resisted meeting the 2% GDP defense spending target that NATO members are required to hit. Trump said he tested NATO members during the Iran conflict to see which ones would show up and support the US. Spain did not. "Spain is a terrible partner in NATO. They don't participate, they don't pay." "Cut off all trade with Spain immediately. Don't even talk to them. Including visits." Spain is one of the US's significant trading partners in Europe. The US exports roughly $16 billion worth of goods to Spain annually. Trump is threatening to end that entirely over NATO non compliance. "They make so much money with us and we are going to see that they make a lot less." Source: Bull Theory @BullTheoryio
🚨 Donald Trump has escalated pressure on Europe, warning that the US could withdraw all American troops from the continent unless allies do more on defense.
He also renewed his demand for US control of Greenland, arguing the Arctic island is strategically vital against growing Chinese and Russian influence. The remarks revive one of the biggest sources of tension within NATO, as European leaders fear a weakening of the US security commitment. With around 80,000 US troops stationed across Europe, any significant withdrawal would mark a historic shift in transatlantic security and reshape the continent’s defense landscape. Source: FT
Traffic through Strait of Hormuz continues to ramp up
Source: Bloomberg
President Trump says Iran has agreed to keep the Strait of Hormuz fully open with NO tolls, fees, or shipping charges.
Trump also says the US will release controlled Iranian funds exclusively to buy American food products. “If this is false information, negotiations would end immediately.” Source: Bull Theory
The UK is not the only country in Europe recording a big turnover at the top...
Source: World in map on X
U.S. and Iran say they made "encouraging progress" in Switzerland and agreed on a roadmap to reach a final deal within 60 days, according to a joint statement released by Qatar and Pakistan.
Key statement points: - High-level U.S.-Iran talks concluded in Switzerland. - Working groups formed on nuclear issues, sanctions and dispute resolution. - Direct communication line established to avoid incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. - De-confliction cell created to support the Lebanon ceasefire. - Technical talks to continue this week in Burgenstock, Switzerland. Iran's FM Araghchi said mediated talks involving Pakistan and Qatar delivered “major progress” on the Lebanon conflict, including waived oil and petrochemical export restrictions, lifting of the blockade, partial release of frozen assets and a reconstruction plan launched for Iran. He cautioned that the first “real test” will be the operational rollout of the Lebanon deconfliction cell. Source: Bull Theory
