Nice infographic on Qatar LNG and Ras Laffan.
Source: S&P Global
Everyone has heard about the German carmakers' crisis.
Take a look at what's going on in its key chemical sector: production is at levels seen during the GFC, and this during good times, even before the current energy crisis. Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
China and Iran a tangled geopolitical web
In 2017, China bought 26% of Iran's oil. Last year? 90%. Every other buyer EU, India, Japan, Korea has been sanctioned out. So when Trump asks China to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he’s asking the one country keeping Iran financially alive to help militarily contain it. China funds Iran's war chest, while Iran mines China’s oil supply. This is one of the most tangled relationships in geopolitics, and Beijing has to choose very carefully. Source: Giacomo Prandelli
The next big question: What is happening in the Bab al-Mandab Strait?
Since the Iran war began, the Strait of Hormuz has been the focal point, as it accounts for ~20 million barrels of daily oil supply. On Thursday, Iran's Fars News Agency said Houthis in Yemen and other “resistance groups” may soon join the war against the US and Israel, per WSJ. Not too long ago, Yemen's Houthis, who are backed by Iran, were striking ships in the Red Sea, resulting in a major drop in shipping activity. Currently, ~12% of global seaborne oil passes through Bab al-Mandab, making it the world’s 4th-largest shipping chokepoint. If this passage is closed, another ~6 million barrels of daily oil supply would be halted. Total offline capacity between the two Straits would near 25 million barrels per day, or ~25% of global supply. We have another pivotal week ahead. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, EIA
Why stocks outperform bonds and cash
The only reason why stocks have a higher long-term return than bonds and cash is to compensate investors for taking on the greater risk of uncertainty, volatility and drawdowns along the way. Without this risk there would be no higher reward. Source: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
Top 25 Countries That Consume the Most Oil
Note: Figures Rounded. Source: Energy Institute, IEA via VG Global Statistics @Globalstats11
Citadel’s Global Fixed Income fund and Taula are among the hedge funds worst hit by last week’s market turmoil, while D.E. Shaw & Co.’s two main vehicles were a rare bright spot in the industry.
Here's all the latest numbers collected by Nishant Kumar @nishantkumar07 / Bloomberg
A toxic cocktail for financial markets?
1) Iran war put downward pressure on global economic growth and upward pressure on global inflation: 2) US labor market continues to weaken 3) The Fed has less leeway to cut rates because of rising inflationary pressure (and despite weakening labor market and weakening growth) 4) Some investors start to lose confidence in some Private Credit Funds as banks are forced to mark down their bad credit exposure. All of them are manageable separately. But the mix is not easy to deal with...
