Syz the moment

Eric Balchunas explained on X why prediction market ETFs may end up being far more popular—and legitimate—than most people expect. For every major macro event (elections, Fed decisions, inflation data), investors are flooded with expert opinions on which assets will rise or fall. Yet, time and again, the opposite happens. Prediction markets flip the approach. Instead of guessing how markets will react, you simply bet on the outcome itself—yes or no. It strips away interpretation, narrative, and bias. “But why use a prediction market ETF instead of going direct?” People asked the same question about crypto. The reality: most investors prefer ETFs. They’re regulated, low-cost, familiar, and fit seamlessly into brokerage accounts. That’s why this category has real potential—even if it comes with a bit of noise along the way. Source: Eric Balchunas on X Bloomberg Intelligence

Cohen offering $56B for $EBAY, or a 20% premium to the closing price on Friday. He already has a 5% stake Offer is $125 / share in cash and stock. He has a letter from TD Bank to provide $20B in debt financing. According to Cohen: “There is nobody who is more qualified, based on my experience, to run the eBay business," "It could be a legit competitor to Amazon," Source: Negligible Capital

Source: The Market Mind

China’s courts have ruled that companies cannot fire or penalize employees simply because AI can replace their work. In two cases, employers who cut pay or terminated workers due to AI adoption were found to have acted illegally. The courts stated AI adoption is a voluntary business choice, so companies must retrain, reassign, or support workers instead of shifting the burden onto them. This contrasts with global trends, where over 1.5 million jobs have been cut since 2020, many due to AI. Major firms like Amazon, Block, and Meta have reduced staff to fund AI investments. Studies warn AI could replace significant portions of the workforce, reducing consumer spending. Economists highlight a risk: widespread layoffs shrink demand, creating a self-destructive cycle where productivity rises but consumers lack income. China’s approach aims to prevent this by protecting workers’ earnings and sustaining economic demand.

Wow. OpenAI not only missed their 2025 revenue target, but they also missed their goal of reaching 1B weekly active users according to WSJ CFO Sarah Friar also reportedly told company leaders that she’s worried the company won’t be able to meet their spending commitments if revenue doesn’t grow faster. “OpenAI missed an internal goal of reaching one billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by the end of last year, according to people familiar with the goals. The company still hasn't announced that milestone, unnerving some investors. It also missed its yearly revenue target for ChatGPT as well after Google's Gemini saw massive growth late last year and ate into OpenAI's market share, the people said. The company has also struggled with defection rates among subscribers, according to people familiar with those figures.” Source: Bloomberg, Negligible Capital, WSJ, B,oomberg

The AI race isn't being won in headlines. It's being won in research budgets. Source: Rand Group

Here's what changes: ➡️ Microsoft will no longer pay a revenue share to OpenAI ➡️OpenAI can now serve its products to customers across any cloud provider ➡️Microsoft continues to participate in OpenAI's growth as a major shareholder and retains a license to OpenAI IP through 2032 ➡️Revenue share payments to Microsoft continue through 2030 Source Reuters / Evan on X

Source: naiive