Goldman team is coming out with higher for longer for oil prices even after the "all clear" sounds and SoH is reopened.
Source: Open Square Capital
The oil market disruption is far worse than headline prices suggest:
Oman crude hit a record $173 per barrel on Wednesday, surpassing even the 2008 Financial Crisis spike. Dubai crude also surged to an all-time high above $150, as buyers scramble to replace supplies cut off by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. The Hormuz closure has severed ~20% of the world's oil production from global markets, triggering the largest supply disruption in modern history. By comparison, Brent is trading at ~$115 and WTI near ~$95, massively understating the severity of the physical shortage. As a result, the gap between Brent and WTI is now the widest since 2013, as the Iran War disproportionately hits European oil supply. The problem is that Brent and WTI are the most commonly quoted benchmarks, but they only reflect North Sea and US supply conditions, not the Middle Eastern crisis. If the Strait does not reopen, Western oil prices will inevitably catch up, as US and European inventories are depleted and global supply tightens further. The real oil crisis has not even reached Western markets yet. Source: Global Markets, FT
Dr Copper ?
Source: Bloomberg
Oil-equity correlations break during oil supply shocks
Source: zerohedge JP Morgan
🧠 The global oil market has split into two separate systems:
Asia: Paying very high prices (~$150+/barrel) US/West: Paying much lower prices (~$95–$105/barrel) T This as an unprecedented “broken” market driven by geopolitics, not normal supply/demand. ⚠️ Main Reasons Strait of Hormuz disruption: A major shipping route (≈20% of global oil supply) is allegedly blocked or restricted. Geopolitical tensions (Iran): Seen as the key player controlling whether supply resumes. Emergency reserves released: Large releases from global and US reserves are being used to stabilize prices. US reserves are described as historically low. 📊 Key Effects 1. Two-tier pricing system Countries with domestic oil (like the US) are better protected. Import-dependent Asian economies pay much more. 2. Economic strain in Asia High oil prices → rising costs → factories slowing or shutting down. Early signs of “demand destruction” (reduced consumption due to high prices). 3. Shrinking safety buffers Strategic oil reserves may only last weeks at current usage rates. Limited ability to replenish during conflict. 4. Rising US fuel prices Gas prices expected to increase significantly if oil rises further. 5. Inflation risk Higher energy costs could: Push inflation back up Force central banks to delay or reverse rate cuts 6. Iran’s leverage Iran is portrayed as holding decisive control over supply routes. Ongoing conflict reduces chances of quick resolution. Source: zerohedge
The US is now one of the largest oil exporters in the world:
US crude oil and petroleum exports hit 3.9 BILLION barrels in 2025, according to the EIA. The Netherlands is the largest buyer at 419 million barrels (10.7%), serving as Europe's largest oil trading hub. Four of the top 7 importers are in Asia, with South Korea (257M), Japan (247M), China (238M), and India (221M) combining for ~24.8% of total US oil exports. Mexico (398M) and Canada (324M) round out the top 3, with North American neighbors combining for 18.5% of total volume. US oil is now flowing to virtually every corner of the globe. Source: Global Markets Investor
Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf
Source: Rory Johnston
Oil is at $104
Bloomberg estimates ➡️ the Iran war accounts for about a third of the price
