Is there a trade here? Crude and the dollar have never been this positively correlated.
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
US–China Sanctions Escalation Over Iranian Oil
Jack Prandelli argues that 90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China, prompting a US sanctions escalation aimed at Beijing. The US has built a multi-step pressure strategy including sanctions on shadow fleet vessels, teapot refineries like Hengli Petrochemical, and networks of front companies across Asia. It has also issued warnings to Chinese banks about potential secondary sanctions if Iranian oil payments continue flowing through their systems. Full secondary sanctions on major Chinese banks remain a possible next step, which could significantly escalate US–China financial tensions. Outcome depends on Beijing.
US continues to drain SPR to export oil to Asia
SPR down 5.22MM last week (-22MM last month) US oil exports 4.75MM last week Source: www.zerohedge.com
The US economy is picking up, corporate earnings are picking up, and investor sentiment is picking up. The headwind? Oil prices are picking up, too.
But so far, US sticks continue to shrug off higher oil prices. On Monday, Deferred Brent (Dec 2026) - see below black line (inverted) - hit a new Iran war high. The S&P 500 (green line) has been moving up for 5 weeks in a row and was only down -0.4%. Source: zerohedge
US oil exports soared to a record 6.4 million barrels last week. Out of the US SPR... and to foreign buyers
Source: zerohedge
UAE could now potentially produce more oil than the OPEC+ quota previously allowed them…
This move could force others to follow. Oil supply is going UP. Source: Geiger Capital
WTI crude hits session highs, pushing 10Y yields to dangerous territory: 4.35% any second
Source: zerohedge
*ANDURAND LOST 52% IN APRIL FIRST HALF AS CEASEFIRE HURT OIL BET
Pierre Andurand’s hedge fund lost 52% in the first few weeks of April and is now down 37% YTD Yikes. Probably don’t deserve to call it a hedge fund at this point. Clearly not much hedging going on for Pierre Source: Negligible Capital, Bloomberg
