The cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Persian Gulf to the Far East has climbed further, reaching ~$1.3 million per day.
It was less than $50,000 a day before the war started; and ~$1.1 million when I first published the chart in September Source: Javier Blas, Bloomberf
Oil just crashed below $90 on reports that Europe may release its diesel and crude oil reserves.
Source: Bull Theory
Another look at the "Aligator jaw" 10y UST yield (in blue) vs. oil (in red)" which took place yesterday...
This was NOT expected Source: Sam Kovacs
Saudi Aramco’s President and CEO, Amin Nasser, has told Japanese media that it can restore disrupted oil operations within days and is seeking to build alternative export routes.
Source. Al Jazeera
If the US effectively removes the diesel exports from global markets, we will have a new low in global refining capacity available for energy markets
Potentially VERY big deal, but I think it is a trial baloon from the administration. Source: Andreas Steno Larsen
White House is preparing plan for 90-day diesel exports ban If Politico is right, Europe is heading into a financial crisis.
The Trump administration is preparing a 90-day ban on US diesel exports to bring down energy prices ahead of the midterms, despite opposition from the oil industry and splits within the administration. Diesel prices have hit record highs, driven by the war against Iran launched in February and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, with the average price topping $6.50 a gallon. Some GOP lawmakers and officials worry the move could backfire by raising gasoline and jet fuel prices, but Trump appears set to announce the ban by the end of the week.
"Oil does not need peace to fall"
Brent continues to carry a substantial geopolitical premium, but the physical shortage is already shrinking. Goldman estimates that the global oil deficit has narrowed from roughly 7mb/d near the start of the war in March to approximately 1mb/d in Q3. Gulf production has partially recovered, demand has weakened and supply outside the region has risen faster than expected. Oil does not need the conflict to end. It needs the disruption to stop getting worse. Source: GS / TME
What absorbed the Hormuz oil shock?
~35% of the gap: pipelines + new supply ~20%: inventory drawdowns ~45%: lower oil consumption The shock absorbers worked. But some are temporary, and the cushion is wearing thin. Source: McKinsey
