Syz the moment

Oil fell as the conflict in the Middle East has so far avoided disrupting crude production and the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran privately expressed willingness to deescalate hostilities with Israel. West Texas Intermediate tumbled as much as 4.9%, after spiking higher at the open, after the newspaper said Tehran would be open to returning to the negotiating table as long as the US doesn’t join the attack. The development quelled fears that a protracted conflict would engulf a region that produces around a third of the world’s crude. Source: Bloomberg

- biggest daily gain in more than 5 years - as Israel launched a series of airstrikes in Iran, and escalated the long-simmering conflict between the two nations into a full-on war. ➡️ The strikes targeted sites linked to Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, as well as top scientists Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, both of whom were killed, Iranian media reported. ➡️The commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, was also killed in a strike. ➡️Netanyahu says attacks would ‘roll back’ Iran threat ➡️Tehran vows retaliation against Israel and US ➡️Washington distances itself from ‘unilateral’ attack. Trump said he will to convene National Security Council meeting. ➡️Oil prices jumped more than 10% as traders anticipated tighter supply. ➡️Gold is up 1.5% at $3,450. S&P 500 futures are down -1.5%. Bitcoin is down 3% at $104k

‼️ Oil prices edged higher on Thursday to their highest in more than two months, after U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East, which raised fear that escalating tensions with Iran could disrupt supply. ➡️ Trump on Wednesday said U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because “it could be a dangerous place,” adding that the United States would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. ⚠️ Reuters reported earlier on Wednesday that the U.S. is preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy and will allow military dependents to leave locations around the Middle East due to heightened security risks in the region, according to U.S. and Iraqi sources.

➡️ U.S. crude oil prices fall more than 4% after OPEC+ agrees to surge production in June ➡️ The eight producers in the group, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed on Saturday to increase output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June. The decision comes a month after OPEC+ surprised the market by agreeing to surge production in May by the same amount. ➡️ The June production hike is nearly triple the 140,000 bpd that Goldman Sachs had originally forecast. OPEC+ is bringing more than 800,000 bpd of additional supply to the market over the course of two months. Source: Barchart, CNBC

That’s a $20B annual loss for the United States at $60/barrel. This will help reducing the trade deficit... Source: Bloomberg, Spencer Hakimian on X, Vortexa

Source: Barchart, The Daily Shot

Could the mining companies be the biggest beneficiaries? This directly impacts their margins, which are expanding significantly as metal prices climb. As pointed out by Tavi Costa, Gold is up nearly $1,000/oz from a year ago, while production costs have risen only about $100–$200/oz, depending on the mine. Source: Crescat Capital, Bloomberg

As the red line shows, WTI is at its highest price since October. The green annotation shows that it has increased by 8% in the last few weeks. The rise of oil prices took place despite Trump win (and the subsequent "Drill, baby drill") and Scott Bessent being nominated Treasury Secretary nominee (and says the US should add 3 million barrels/day of production). So why isn't crude oil slumping and now on the verge of breaking out? Source: James Bianco, Bloomberg