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16 Feb 2024

Oil rigs are now contracting the most since the pandemic issues.

As highlighted by Tavi Costa -> US GDP is nearly 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels, while oil production remains at approximately the same level as it was in early 2020 Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital

6 Feb 2024

Supply constraints for oil are on the horizon, according to Occidental

Source: CNBC

31 Jan 2024

Saudi Arabia has announced that it will stop pursuing the expansion of its oil production capacity, reversing a key goal in the oil's superpower strategy

Supporters of the energy transition are celebrating, but geopolitics may be more important than what meets the eye. In a nutshell, Saudi Arabia manages together with Russia a very complex political and economic arrangement within the OPEC+ alliance. Riyad and Moscow are coordinating with other producers around the world in order to revive the global oil market, prevent production surplus and keep oil prices higher than non-OPEC producers' policies would. Source: Francesco Sassi

15 Jan 2024

Oil prices jump back above $75 after the US and UK conduct strikes in Yemen.

We are also seeing gold prices up on the news as fears of a larger war resurface. The primary motive for these strikes was the recent Red Sea attacks by the Houthi group in Yemen. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

22 Dec 2023

Red Sea disruption to oil supplies is overblown, argues Julian Lee. Why?

1. Houthis unlikely to attack Russian ships heading to India & China 2. Saudi pipeline can bypass Bab Al Mandab 3. Iraqi & Saudi shipments to the US don't go through the red sea Source: Bloomberg, Ziad Daoud

20 Dec 2023

The US added the equivalent of a new Venezuela in oil supply during Q4, with less rigs producing more oil as technological efficiency ramps up

This supply growth has exceeded expectations and furled OPEC's attempt to put a floor under prices, at least for now. Source: Markets & Mayhem, Bloomberg

7 Dec 2023

Maybe oil is not that irrational... As shown on the chart below, Oil (purple line) keeps following the Citigroup US Macro Surprises index (yellow line)

The weaker the data, the lower the prices. Sounds logical. Source: TME

7 Dec 2023

BREAKING: Crude oil prices drop below $70/barrel for the first time since July 2023

Since the September 28th high, oil prices are now down ~27%. Meanwhile, the national average gas price is down for 10-straight weeks to $3.25/gallon. Even as OPEC+ agreed to additional supply cuts last week, oil markets are selling off. A welcomed development for global liquidity, for inflation and for the Fed. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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