🌍 The IEA just dropped a bombshell:
If the world stays on its current path, oil and gas demand will keep rising for the next 25 years. That’s right — no peak this decade, no major drop in CO₂ emissions, and likely no chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C. 🔥 2024 was the hottest year on record. Yet the International Energy Agency says “climate change is rapidly declining on the global energy agenda.” Why? Governments are prioritizing energy security and affordability over climate goals. Growth of electric vehicles is slowing. Demand for energy from AI, air conditioners, and manufacturing is exploding. 📈 Under the IEA’s new “Current Policies” scenario: Oil demand grows from 100M → 113M barrels/day by 2050 EV adoption plateaus around 40% by 2035 Gas demand continues to climb Coal finally peaks — but still lingers 💡 Even so, renewables will shoulder most of the new electricity demand — especially in India, SE Asia, Latin America, and Africa. ⚠️ Translation: The clean energy revolution is real… …but fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere unless policies change fast. Source: FT
Not much improvement for the commodities-to-dow ratio
Dow Jones hit new all-time high while oil stays in a down trend. Source: Bloomberg, Finding Value Finance on X
The world’s leading energy groups are stepping up their hunt for new oil and gas reserves
As slower than expected transition to renewables sets the stage for stronger fossil fuel demand for decades to come. Source: FT
WHO RUNS THE OIL WORLD?
The US isn’t just flipping burgers - it's pumping 22.7 million barrels of oil a day, more than double Saudi Arabia or Russia. That’s 22% of the world’s supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia trail with 10.7 and 10.5 million barrels/day. Canada’s in 4th (6.0), followed by China (5.3), Iran (4.7), Iraq (4.5), and Brazil (4.3). Total world production? 102.8 million barrels a day. Which means the U.S. alone is doing over a fifth of the heavy lifting. Source: Statista thru Evan on X
Who would have expected this?
The US bombed Iran over the weekend. Naturally, the SP500 rose 2% on Monday-Tuesday while Crude Oil fell 12% and the hashtag#Volatility Index $VIX crashed 15%. Just as everyone predicted… Source: Charlie Bilello
Oil prices fall 5% after Trump says China can continue buying oil from Iran.
“China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. “Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also. It was my Great Honor to make this happen!” Trump threatened in May to ban any country that buys Iranian oil from doing business with the U.S. China purchases the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports. Source: CNBC
BREAKING: Crude Oil
Absolute Rug Pull in Crude Oil now plunging back below its 200D moving average tonight Source: Barchart
Oil Cheat Sheet.
Source: Menthor Q @MenthorQpro
