Bloomberg's Michael Ball notes that material flows through Hormuz creates a different problem for crude,
Especially in Asia, as too much supply hits a region that has already adapted to fewer Middle East barrels. Asian refiners replaced disrupted Middle East barrels with US crude and other alternatives, cut some processing runs when prices rose and are now facing a sudden wave of Persian Gulf supply. This has led Middle Eastern crude curves to flip into bearish contango, showing the market is pricing a near-term glut rather than shortage. Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge
Trump: "The deal is complete (...) Let the oil flow!" Crude oil $WTI is plummeting on Hyperliquid in pre-market open!
After 107 days of war, the US and Iran have now officially reached a peace deal, with the signing set for June 19th in Switzerland.
Oil falls. Yields rise. Something has shifted
Oil down 15% in three weeks. The two-year yield up 15bps last week to 4.15% - its highest since early 2025. For the first time in months, US macro is back in the driving seat. Source: Jonny Matthews | SuperMacro
Japan's Crude Oil reserve was built in 1980.
Took 45 years to fill. Took 8 weeks to drain. Source: Rand Group
The US is exporting its SPR releases.
Source: Lukas Ekwueme
Global oil inventories have fallen to 7.6 billion barrels since the Iran war began
Source: Stocks World
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks fall to 2-year low
Source: zerohedge
Is there a trade here? Crude and the dollar have never been this positively correlated.
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
