Syz the moment

While headlines focus on futures, the real stress is building in the physical market. North Sea crude for immediate delivery is surging as European and Asian refiners scramble to replace barrels lost during the month-long Strait of Hormuz blockade. And the key signal? Dated Brent—the benchmark for physical cargoes—is telling a very different story than futures. Dated Brent jumped 7% to $132 June Brent futures are still sitting around $95 That’s not just a gap. That’s a massive dislocation between real supply and paper pricing. Meanwhile, the squeeze is getting worse: Forties Blend—another spot market indicator—traded near $147/barrel Translation: The barrels you can get today are becoming dramatically more expensive than what the market thinks oil should cost tomorrow. Why this matters: When physical markets decouple from futures like this, it often signals: Immediate supply shortages Panic buying from refiners And potential repricing across the entire energy complex Bottom line: Are Physical prices already telling us what futures haven’t caught up to yet??? Source: Ole S Hansen, Saxo Bank

$21 gone. In hours. Here’s what the market is pricing in right now: → Hormuz reopening. Supply returns. → Strategic reserves stop draining. Pressure eases. → Saudi premium collapses. Asian refiners breathe. → LNG reroutes. Freight costs drop. Every trade that worked during the war just flipped overnight. But let’s keep in mind the full story: - The “ceasefire” is 2 weeks old. Not a peace deal. - Hormuz has real technical limitations. It doesn’t reopen like a faucet. - 11 million barrels/day of infrastructure is damaged. - Qatar LNG takes years to rebuild. Peace is harder to price than war. War gives you a narrative. Peace gives you uncertainty. The most volatile oil trade in a generation just entered its most dangerous phase — and most traders are celebrating. That’s usually when you should be careful. What’s your read? Are you buying the dip or watching from the sidelines? Source: CNBC, Jack Pradelli

As Andreas Steno Larsen notes, “markets typically bottom when the rate of change improves.” Source: TME

Do you trust forward-looking equities, or oil stuck at extremes? Source: TME

Iran, Kuwait, and Qatar follow at 11%, 10%, and 5%, respectively. On the destination side, China receives the largest portion at 37%, followed by India at 14%, Other Asia and Oceania at 16%, South Korea at 12%, and Japan at 12%. This means ~75% of all crude oil passing through the Strait flows to Asia, making the region overwhelmingly the most exposed to the current disruption. Saudi Arabia and Iraq alone represent 60% of all crude transiting the chokepoint, meaning any prolonged closure disproportionately impacts their export revenues and Asian buyers simultaneously. The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy flows. Source: Global Markets Investor

Just before Trump sent oil prices surging higher... Oil traders made a big leveraged bet that prices would fall from war-driven highs — but many are losing badly. Investors poured $977M into the inverse oil ETF (SCO) in March, its biggest monthly inflow ever. The fund aims to profit when oil drops, but instead plunged 41% as crude surged. The bet hinges on a quick end to conflict. While the fund briefly jumped 8% after signals of de-escalation, oil prices remain elevated — rising as high as $119 and still around $102, well above February levels. Ongoing supply disruptions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, could keep prices high for months. Even a ceasefire may not be enough for short traders to recover. Bottom line: this is a high-risk “war ends soon” trade — and so far, it’s backfiring. Source: Markets & Mayhem, *Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg

Source: Maxence Visseau - Arkevium Capital & Arkevium Research