Iran war ➡️ Bloomberg sees 2 most likely scenarios: limited energy attacks pushing oil to $80, or a ceasefire bringing it back to $65.
For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would push the economy to the brink of recession. Source: Bloomberg Economics
Is Putin the clear a winner in a war that otherwise only have losers?
Apart from higher oil prices 🇺🇸 now eases up on sanctions and lets India and probably others buy more of oil. Source: Carl Bildt
Is this the most important countdown in the global economy right now? ⏳
Gulf oil exporters are facing a scenario few markets are pricing in. With exports disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, some of the world’s largest oil producers may soon hit a hard physical limit: Storage capacity. If crude cannot leave the Gulf and storage tanks fill up, producers will have no choice but to shut down production at some of the largest oil fields on earth. Countries exposed to this risk include: Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. And shutting down oil wells is not like flipping a switch. Depending on the geology of the reservoir and extraction technology, halting production can damage fields and infrastructure, sometimes permanently. Restarting production is costly, slow, and in some cases impossible at previous levels. That means the impact wouldn’t just be temporary. It could lead to a medium-to-long-term reduction in Middle Eastern oil supply. If that happens, markets won’t just price in disruption. They will price in scarcity. The result: a massive risk premium on global oil prices, especially for regional crude grades. And here’s the critical detail most people miss: Storage tanks are rarely filled beyond ~80% capacity for operational and safety reasons. So the real countdown to forced production cuts may be much shorter than expected. Two more strategic realities: • Some producers—especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE—could redirect part of their exports through alternative pipelines and routes. • But those routes would instantly become high-value strategic targets in any regional escalation. At that point, the stakes change. This is no longer just about the survival of Iran. If production across the Gulf begins to halt, the economic survival of major producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq—the first and second largest producers in OPEC—would also be at risk. And when the core of the global oil system is threatened with shutdown… The pressure for the war to expand becomes almost inevitable. Source: Francesco Sassi, Bloomberg
Oil is still trading at these new elevated levels, but above all, oil volatility (OVX) remains in pure panic mode.
Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Goldman is assuming that Strait of Hormuz reopens in 5 days. Flows normalize by mid-April. Q2 average Brent price $76/bbl.
Source: Open Square Capital, Goldman Sachs
How many days of oil does Asia have in reserve?
Our 2025 AI Job Impacts Analysis found that starting in 2028-2029, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates. Yet, each year, over 32 million jobs will be significantly transformedAcross Asia, reserves range from more than 250 days in some countries to just a few weeks in others. In times of geopolitical tension, energy security is firmly back in focus. Source: Khaosod English
Chasing overbought oil is usually a bad trade.
Source: TME, LSEG
It Was Never About Iran or Venezuela. It’s About China.
+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is usedChina’s rise has a quiet weakness: energy dependence. 🇨🇳 China imports 70%+ of its oil 🛢️ And that oil comes from a very small club of countries Here’s the part most people miss: Venezuela (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2), and Iran (#3) Together control ~45% of the world’s proven oil reserves Now connect the dots. The public narratives are familiar: • Remove dictators • Stop drug trafficking • Prevent nuclear weapons All valid concerns. But they don’t explain the pattern. 🔹 If drugs were the real reason, Mexico would be the main target 🔹 If nukes were the red line, North Korea would be regime-changed 🔹 If authoritarianism was intolerable, the list would be much longer So why Iran and Venezuela? Because both sit on massive oil reserves And both have been energy lifelines for China This isn’t about invasion or ownership. It’s about influence: • Who they trade with • Who they align with • Who gets access when supply tightens You don’t need to control oil. You just need to shape who can’t access it. Seen through that lens, the strategy becomes clear: 🧠 Pressure China without firing at China 🌍 Reshape global energy leverage ♟️ Play the long game, quietly Source: SoveyX Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge
