Oil and US dollar strength move in tandem, which could mitigate inflationary pressures on import prices for America.
US oil exports to hit record as Iran war triggers race for supplies. Source: Daniel Lacalle on X, Bloomberg
The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now in effect:
The US military began enforcing a blockade of all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing non-Iran-bound traffic to transit the strait freely. Strait transits have collapsed to single digits per day, from ~135 in peacetime, and a full blockade could reduce that further. Asian nations, which rely on more than 80% of the energy that usually transits the strait, are bearing the brunt of the disruption, with downstream industries from fertilizers to packaging also taking a hit. The ceasefire expires on April 22, and the window for diplomacy is shrinking fast. Source: Global Markets Investor, Bloomberg
5.0 Million b/d US Exports Just Hit Record As Hormuz Flatlines
+23% above March.... In 1 month This isn't a coincidence. It's the market rerouting. Hormuz closes → Asian buyers panic → empty VLCCs race to US Gulf Coast → American crude fills the gap Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Bloomberg
+1300% in a year, easy to think the move is done.
But as Bloomberg highlights, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) reflects deeper forces. Even before the conflict: - Aging fleet - Tight capacity - Sanctions limiting supply ➡️ The war accelerated existing trends. Now the question isn’t how far it’s gone, but what’s changed. Structural tightness remains: - Longer, more complex trade routes - Sourcing shifting farther away - Rising demand for shipping capacity ➡️ That’s why gains may not fully unwind, even with peace. As John K. notes: the story may shift from war-driven to fundamentally driven. The fundamentals still point to persistence. Source. Bloomberg
The oil shock's impact on global inflation is likely to be temporary and short-lived.
Source: Bloomberg
Google searches for "price of oil" just hit a record high: 300% above the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war peak and the 2008 financial crisis combined.
20 years of data. Every war, every crash, every crisis... all dwarfed by a single vertical line in 2026. The whole world is watching the pump. Source: Arbor Research, Mario Nawfal on X
North Sea crude prices for immediate delivery continue to highlight mounting stress in the physical market
While headlines focus on futures, the real stress is building in the physical market. North Sea crude for immediate delivery is surging as European and Asian refiners scramble to replace barrels lost during the month-long Strait of Hormuz blockade. And the key signal? Dated Brent—the benchmark for physical cargoes—is telling a very different story than futures. Dated Brent jumped 7% to $132 June Brent futures are still sitting around $95 That’s not just a gap. That’s a massive dislocation between real supply and paper pricing. Meanwhile, the squeeze is getting worse: Forties Blend—another spot market indicator—traded near $147/barrel Translation: The barrels you can get today are becoming dramatically more expensive than what the market thinks oil should cost tomorrow. Why this matters: When physical markets decouple from futures like this, it often signals: Immediate supply shortages Panic buying from refiners And potential repricing across the entire energy complex Bottom line: Are Physical prices already telling us what futures haven’t caught up to yet??? Source: Ole S Hansen, Saxo Bank
The fastest oil crash since COVID just happened.
$21 gone. In hours. Here’s what the market is pricing in right now: → Hormuz reopening. Supply returns. → Strategic reserves stop draining. Pressure eases. → Saudi premium collapses. Asian refiners breathe. → LNG reroutes. Freight costs drop. Every trade that worked during the war just flipped overnight. But let’s keep in mind the full story: - The “ceasefire” is 2 weeks old. Not a peace deal. - Hormuz has real technical limitations. It doesn’t reopen like a faucet. - 11 million barrels/day of infrastructure is damaged. - Qatar LNG takes years to rebuild. Peace is harder to price than war. War gives you a narrative. Peace gives you uncertainty. The most volatile oil trade in a generation just entered its most dangerous phase — and most traders are celebrating. That’s usually when you should be careful. What’s your read? Are you buying the dip or watching from the sidelines? Source: CNBC, Jack Pradelli
