Bluekurtic Market Insights: "$SPX volatility index $VIX remains above 20 and oil at multi year highs.
Sustained oil supply shocks can risk deeper drawdowns. In prior cases of prolonged supply disruptions, S&P 500 saw above average drawdowns in the following 3 months". Source: Bluekurtic
China and Iran a tangled geopolitical web
In 2017, China bought 26% of Iran's oil. Last year? 90%. Every other buyer EU, India, Japan, Korea has been sanctioned out. So when Trump asks China to send warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he’s asking the one country keeping Iran financially alive to help militarily contain it. China funds Iran's war chest, while Iran mines China’s oil supply. This is one of the most tangled relationships in geopolitics, and Beijing has to choose very carefully. Source: Giacomo Prandelli
Top 25 Countries That Consume the Most Oil
Note: Figures Rounded. Source: Energy Institute, IEA via VG Global Statistics @Globalstats11
3 scenarios on Iran War by UBS
1. Quick de-escalation: Hormuz flows resume quickly; Brent averages ~$80 in March then mid-$70s, while TTF gas falls from ~€50 to high-€30s as inventories cushion short-term disruptions. 2. ~1-month Hormuz disruption: Markets tighten; Brent rises above $100 in March and TTF gas approaches €80, with faster inventory drawdowns and delayed normalization. 3. Extended disruption / infrastructure damage: Severe supply shock; Brent could reach $150+ by 2Q26 and TTF ~€80, creating a crisis similar to the 2022 European gas shock. ➡️ One thing is clear: OVX is not pricing the de-escalation scenario, closing at 121. Source. UBS, TME
The history of WTI Crude oil geopolitical spikes
Source: Evan @StockMKTNewz Leverage Shares
This is what Bloomberg thinks oil prices could be if the strait of Hormuz is shut for different time periods
1 month - ~$105 per barrel 2 months - ~$140 3 months - ~$165 Source: Evan Evan StockMKTNewz Bloomberg Economics
Korean stocks volatility trades like oil volatility
The KOSPI “VIX” currently trades more like an oil volatility proxy than a traditional equity vol index. Latest note on Korea here. Source: LSEG Workspace, TME
IEA Plans Record Oil Release, But Supply Shock May Persist
The IEA proposes releasing 400 million barrels—the largest ever—to ease crude prices amid the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Yet with 18–20 mb/d of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, even coordinated G7 releases (~2.2 mb/d over six months) can only partially offset the shock, cooling but not stopping the oil rally. Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, Joumanna Bercetche
