Syz the moment

Our 2025 AI Job Impacts Analysis found that starting in 2028-2029, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates. Yet, each year, over 32 million jobs will be significantly transformedAcross Asia, reserves range from more than 250 days in some countries to just a few weeks in others. In times of geopolitical tension, energy security is firmly back in focus. Source: Khaosod English

Source: TME, LSEG

+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is usedChina’s rise has a quiet weakness: energy dependence. 🇨🇳 China imports 70%+ of its oil 🛢️ And that oil comes from a very small club of countries Here’s the part most people miss: Venezuela (#1), Saudi Arabia (#2), and Iran (#3) Together control ~45% of the world’s proven oil reserves Now connect the dots. The public narratives are familiar: • Remove dictators • Stop drug trafficking • Prevent nuclear weapons All valid concerns. But they don’t explain the pattern. 🔹 If drugs were the real reason, Mexico would be the main target 🔹 If nukes were the red line, North Korea would be regime-changed 🔹 If authoritarianism was intolerable, the list would be much longer So why Iran and Venezuela? Because both sit on massive oil reserves And both have been energy lifelines for China This isn’t about invasion or ownership. It’s about influence: • Who they trade with • Who they align with • Who gets access when supply tightens You don’t need to control oil. You just need to shape who can’t access it. Seen through that lens, the strategy becomes clear: 🧠 Pressure China without firing at China 🌍 Reshape global energy leverage ♟️ Play the long game, quietly Source: SoveyX Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge

+$15 for a full one-month closure if there are no offsets (e.g. utilization of spare pipeline capacity, SPR release) +$12 for a full one-month closure if all estimated 4mb/d spare pipeline capacity is used +$10 for a full one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used and global SPRs are released for one month at a 2mb/d pace +$4 for a partial 50% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used +$1 for a partial 25% one-month closure if all estimated spare pipeline capacity is used Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge

"Based on the 15% weekend gain in retail prices, we estimate an $18/bbl real-time risk premium in crude oil prices, which corresponds approximately to our estimate of the fair value effect of a six-week full halt in Strait of Hormuz flows (allowing for spare pipeline capacity use as a partial offset). This estimated impact moderates to +$4 if only 50% of the flows are halted for one month. However, oil prices can rise substantially more if the market demands a premium for the risk of more persistent supply disruptions." Source: Brian Sozzi

Source: TME

This also explains why oil shocks today tend to be shorter-lived than in the past. There is simply more swing capacity in the system, and a lot of it sits in the US... Source: Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli

For the first time since 1978, Iran’s oil output has reached about 5.5 million barrels per day, marking a structural shift rather than a simple recovery. After years of volatility, production has surged since 2020, driven largely by growth in condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are less constrained by sanctions than conventional crude. Much of this supply is moving discreetly to China via shadow fleets, adding hidden liquidity to global markets and helping restrain oil prices despite geopolitical risks. Bottom line: Iran is re-emerging as a major energy player in a form that is harder to sanction, raising questions about how effective traditional oil sanctions remain in today’s market. Source: Jack Prandelli on X