Fed Faces Uncertain Path as Inflation Data Lags Reality
February CPI data shows inflation cooling and core CPI at 2.5%, suggesting possible Fed rate cuts. But the report predates the U.S.–Iran conflict and oil spike. With softening jobs and rising energy costs, Fed policymakers face a tough March 18 decision amid conflicting signals between outdated data and current global shocks. Source: Bull Theory, Crypto Rover
Everyone keeps asking the wrong question about Iran. “Why hasn’t Trump crippled Iran’s oil exports?”
Kharg Island handles about 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it a critical but vulnerable target. Striking it could quickly cripple Iran’s oil economy. However, it has not been attacked because doing so could trigger retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and cause a surge in global oil prices. Some analysts suggest the strategy is to preserve Iran’s oil assets rather than destroy them. Source: FT, Mario Nawfal
Today, oil printed one of the biggest shooting star candles we have ever seen
* $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
The last 24 hours of trading in the April 2026 WTI trading might be the wildest day in the 40+ year history of crude oil futures trading.
* $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Source: Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
Oil’s wildest day ever?
xcluding the period when the world was in lockdown while Corona, yesterday marked the largest intraday trading range in history for front-month crude WTI. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Goldman Sachs: some oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz
Source: Brian Sozzi @BrianSozzi Goldman Sachs
Iran war ➡️ Bloomberg sees 2 most likely scenarios: limited energy attacks pushing oil to $80, or a ceasefire bringing it back to $65.
For Europe, sustained higher energy prices would push the economy to the brink of recession. Source: Bloomberg Economics
Is Putin the clear a winner in a war that otherwise only have losers?
Apart from higher oil prices 🇺🇸 now eases up on sanctions and lets India and probably others buy more of oil. Source: Carl Bildt
