50 countries rely on imported fossil fuels for more than HALF their energy.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint: disruption would hit energy-dependent economies like Japan, South Korea, and Germany. Despite shifts after past crises, reliance on fossil fuels remains high and concentrated in volatile regions. The energy transition is progressing, but too slowly to mitigate immediate geopolitical and supply risks. Source: Jack Prandelli on X, Ember
Russian oil export revenues are at their highest since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine
Gross income from seaborne crude exports surged to $2.46 billion for the week ending March 22, the highest since March 2022. The 4-week average is up to $1.71 billion per week, up from $900 million in January. This comes as the value of Russian crude exports has DOUBLED over the last 3 weeks, rising from an average of $135 million per day in January to $270 million per day now. The surge is being driven by soaring global oil prices and a US tariff waiver allowing buyers to purchase Russian crude loaded before March 12, boosting sales to India significantly. Years of Western sanctions pressure have been undone in a matter of weeks. Source: Global Markets Investors, Bloomberg
Is the petrodollar era starting to erode?
A Deutsche Bank report questions the future of the petrodollar system, where oil trade in USD underpins global demand for the currency. Emerging shifts Middle Eastern oil flowing to Asia, countries like Russia and Iran trading outside the dollar, and Saudi Arabia considering alternatives are increasing pressure. Geopolitical tensions and risks to Gulf supply routes could accelerate change. Combined with the rise of renewables and energy independence, a gradual decline in USD dominance may reshape global financial power.Source: ZeroHedge, Deutsche Bank
Why the West Remains Calm
Goldman Sachs explains that despite a sharp drop of 270 million barrels in global oil shipments within three weeks, Western economies remain stable. High oil inventories across OECD Europe and the Americas cushion any supply shock, preventing immediate disruption. This insulation allows major U.S. oil companies to achieve exceptional profitability even as global supply tightens. Consequently, the West is not protected but may benefit from current conditions, raising questions about who advantages from ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Qasem Al-Ali (@AlaliQasem)
Will Oil prices continue mirroring the 1990 Gulf War analog?
Source: The Chart Report
Fear index Vix tumbles w/oil on Trump’s softer Iran tone. Reality check: both still elevated vs. pre-war. This isn’t calm – it’s just less panic.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Suspicious $580M Oil Trades Precede Trump Announcement, Raising Insider Concerns
$580M in oil futures (Brent, WTI) were traded minutes before Donald Trump announced “productive talks” with Iran, triggering falling oil prices and rising global stocks. The timing fuels insider trading concerns, as unusual volumes and market moves appeared before public news. Experts call it abnormal, echoing past suspicious trades. The White House denies wrongdoing amid growing investor concern. Source: Financial Times (FT)
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the rest of this year, betting on a longer disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil to average $85/$79/bbl for 2026 (up from $77/72 Brent & WTI), and $80/$75/bbl for 2027. Goldman Sachs. Source: Open Square Capital
