Japan enters recession with Nikkei about to hit All Time High as the yen trades at 150
The Nikkei has more than doubled from the covid lows and is about to breach its all time bubble highs set in in the last days of 1989... and moments ago Japan entered a recession. In fact, From its generational low set a decade ago, the Nikkei has almost quadrupled even as Japan's economy has slumped into recession three times! Once the second largest economy in the world, Japan reported two consecutive quarters of contraction on Thursday — falling 0.4% on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after a revised 3.3% contraction in the third quarter. Fourth quarter GDP sharply missed forecasts for a 1.4% growth in a Reuters poll of economists. Source: CNBC, www.zerohedge.com
If we do not have a recession, stocks tend to rally after the Fed cuts
If we do, however, they tend to decline They say the economy isn't the market, but in this example it could have a measurable impact on the outcome Source: Markets & Mayhem
The last 4 times the 10Y Minus 3M Treasury Yield Curve inverted, it led to the 1990s recession, the Dotcom Bust, the Global Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Recession.
Will this time be different? 🤔 Source: Barchart
The Druckenmiller Recession indicator continues to plummet
Source: Win Smart, TS Lombard
2024 outlook in one picture
Source: Hedgeye
The European composite PMI output index pointed to the sharpest decline in nearly three years
October's data also showed firms in the region cutting staff on a net basis for the first time since early 2021 The region is quite likely to go into a recession. Source: Markets Mayhem
Morgan Stanley industrial team runs through their conclusions coming out of a choppy earnings season
A double-digit short-cycle slowdown is getting priced in, but ongoing inventory and incremental capex pressures are not. Source: MS, TME
“Soft Landing” is still the consensus. But consensus doesn’t have a good track record...
Source: Game of Tardes
